Neil Mackay: Forget the phoney culture war, Nicola Sturgeon is firmly in control

Polling by Savanta ComRes indicates that 37 per cent of Scots back the general principle of reforming the Gender Recognition Act (GRA). GRA reform will allow trans people to self-identify as the gender of their choice. Only 26% oppose the SNP moves. Some 27% have no opinion either way, and 10% don’t know.

This polling data is hardly evidence of a culture war splitting the nation. What is evidenced is that only a quarter of people oppose trans-friendly legislation – the rest of us either support the changes, or don’t know or don’t care.

This presents a starkly different state of affairs to the way the debate plays out on social media. There, SNP supporters of many varying hues are in a state of endless uproar over trans issues. Of course, the explanation for that disparity is simple: Twitter isn’t real life. On Twitter, extremism always rises to the top.

Sadly, too many Scottish commentators take their lead these days from social media, rather than speaking to real people in the real world. and have amplified the transphobia of Twitter, Facebook and the blogosphere.

Read more: SNP’s endless attention seeking and in-fighting is making it a national embarrassment

The poll also showed that the position of the SNP MP Joanna Cherry, seen as leading opposition to Gender Recognition Act reform, is at odds with the majority of Scots who voted for her party – and almost half of women. The poll found that SNP voters were twice as likely to back Ms Cherry’s sacking than not.

Significantly, there’s a noticeable generational divide on the issue of trans rights. People under 55 are more likely to back reforms than oppose them. Some 59% of those aged 16-24 back reforms. When it comes to over-55s, opposition stands at 44% – still not an outright majority in this category.

Women are also more likely to back reforms than men. This is notable, as a lot of debate has centred on issues related to women’s rights and single-sex spaces, like changing rooms and bathrooms. Some 44% of women support reform compared to 16% opposed – 27% have no opinion, and 12% don’t know.

When it comes to men, 35% oppose the plans, 29% support, 28% have no opinion and 8% don’t know.

Again, outright opposition seems a minority activity.

Only a quarter of people oppose trans-friendly legislation

On Ms Cherry, 32% of SNP voters backed her sacking, only 13% opposed it. The voting group most opposed to her sacking was Scottish Conservatives, at 30%, and Scots over 55, at 31%. Most people – some 57% – when questioned about the Cherry issue, though, said they didn’t know or had no opinion.

Polling also shows that while support for independence has taken a slight wobble – dropping for the first time in three months – there’s still 47% of Scots in favour of Yes compared to 42% against. Although 45% of voters think the SNP is divided – over Alex Salmond, trans rights and the timing of indyref2 – the party is still set for an overwhelming majority at the May elections.

As Chris Hopkins, associate director at Savanta ComRes, says: “Consistently, SNP supporters side with [First Minister Nicola Sturgeon] on matters that could divide the party, putting the current SNP leader in a continually strong position among voters and within her own party.”

Read more: SNP is in hell and has nobody to blame but itself

There’s three lessons to be learned here: first, those within her own party trying to take on Ms Sturgeon on are running contrary to public opinion. Like it or not, the Scottish people – by and large – trust her. Although MPs like Ms Cherry are a big noise in Parliament and on social media, they don’t really cut through amongst the wider public.

Secondly, while Ms Sturgeon may not have quite the bragging rights of Donald Trump – who once boasted, semi-accurately, that he could stand on Fifth Avenue and shoot someone without losing voters – she’s getting close.

Inside the Scottish political and media bubble there’s utter disbelief that the running sore that is the Salmond saga hasn’t finished Ms Sturgeon off. Perhaps, one day it might, but at the moment, the public really doesn’t care that much.

That may very well be detrimental to Scottish democracy, but it’s fact of life. If it does come to pass that Ms Sturgeon deliberately misled parliament, she could gamble on public support and simply defy calls for her to go. It’s unlikely she’d act in such an anti-democratic manner, but she could – maybe – get away with it, if she were willing to trash her reputation in the history books in order to hold on to power.

The third point takes us back to the issue of Scotland’s phoney culture war. The whole trans row was cooked up by a bunch of anonymous extremists in the depths of social media, then made presentable and amplified by commentators and public figures. It has no real resonance with folk in the street.

This last point should be seen positively. We don’t need to have a rancorous debate over matters of equality. There’s no public appetite for such bitterness and division. For that the Scottish people should be applauded.

Other nations have dealt with the issue of trans rights without descending to the state of recent Scottish debate. Iceland, Portugal, Malta, Norway, Denmark and Belgium all followed the path of self-identification without entering a phoney culture war. In Ireland, a GRA allowing self-declaration was passed in 2015 without the sky falling in on anyone’s head.

The issue of trans rights was latched on to by a hardline section of the SNP’s base which backs Mr Salmond over Ms Sturgeon and wants a second referendum come what may. Sturgeon is a constitutional gradualist and social progressive. Her opponents sought to weaponise trans rights against her. The phoney culture war was just an extension of the SNP civil war.

However, analysis of public opinion shows this faction to be out of step with much of Scotland. Rightly or wrongly, Ms Sturgeon is now empowered to deal with her opponents as she sees fit.

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