This article appears as part of the Unspun: Scottish Politics newsletter.

Matthew McLean’s decision to abandon the Scottish Tories and join Reform UK wasn’t driven solely by policy differences.

While the North Ayrshire councillor — one of two to defect at the end of last week — was undoubtedly unhappy with his old party’s approach to immigration and the union, a lot of his misery stems, it seems, from shoddy management.

In an address to Reform's conference in Perth on Saturday, McLean said it hadn’t been easy to leave the Tories.

I'm not sure. After listening to his speech, which almost bordered on therapy as he unloaded, unburdened and processed a shopping list of Tory-related stresses, I was surprised it had taken so long. 

He pointed out that the Tories had done well in North Ayrshire at the 2022 council elections, gaining three seats to end up with 10 councillors, propelling them ahead of Labour into second place.

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No one from party HQ ever contacted the group to say "well done", or ask for advice, he said.

And then when there was by-election in Arran — the only single member council ward in the whole of Scotland — there was no real help from the party.

That was despite the seat previously being held by a Tory councillor, despite the SNP not standing a candidate and despite Arran being synonymous with the ferry fiasco.

“No MP came, no MSPs came, even the current leader whose West of Scotland constituency includes Arran didn’t come to see us."

I got the impression that if McLean had just been shown a little bit more attention by Tory HQ, he’d still be part of the family.

Perhaps the reason it took so long was that until now he had nowhere else to go.

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What should be worrying Russell Findlay and his top team is how many others in the party feel the same way as McLean.

One MSP told me it was unlikely we’d see anyone in the Holyrood group jump ship.

But more members and councillors moving over? Absolutely.

At Saturday’s conference, Reform's Scottish organiser, Matyn Greene told us they had 5,000 members.

"We’ll soon overtake the Scottish Tories" he said. Given the Scottish Tories had 6,941 members in September, there’s a chance they already have. And if not, then they’re only weeks not months away from doing so.

Polls suggest Reform UK is currently on nearly 11% of the vote in Scotland.

According to Professor Sir John Curtice that would translate to two seats in most regions and at least one in the others.

Around 14 MSPs.

And yet, Findlay seems pretty relaxed about it all.

“I think we have to keep things in perspective,” he told PA on Monday. “Reform has no meaningful infrastructure, no Scottish policies and no Scottish leadership to speak of.”

He’s absolutely right. He should be terrified that they're doing so well without really trying.

He should also be looking to colleagues in Wales.

Andrew RT Davies quit as Welsh Tory leader on Tuesday morning, in part because of the party's splits on how to deal with Reform, who are, according to the most recent poll, four points ahead of them.

Findlay's not the only party leader who should worry about Reform — though he should worry the most. 

If the polls are correct then the Nigel Farage-led party will take votes from Labour and the SNP in 2026 and could, ultimately, end up holding the balance of power in Holyrood.