Georgia protests: Russia, the EU and what happens next

Hundreds have been arrested and dozens injured, with the opposition calling for new elections.

Here's what you need to know.

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What are the protests about?

Last week, Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced he was freezing talks on joining the European Union until 2028.

That's led to protests on the streets which have been met with a violent crackdown by police.

There have been demonstrations in the capital, Tblisi, as well as at least eight other towns and cities.

Over 250 people have been arrested, with the Georgian government saying they threw stones and pyrotechnics at police.

Opposition parties say the handling of the protests has been "brutal and disproportionate".

Demonstrators use firecrackers against police during a rally against the government's decision to suspend negotiations on joining the European Union (Image: AP Photo/Zurab Tsertsvadze) What's the background?

Georgia declared independence from the Soviet Union in 1991 with around 99.5% voting in favour.

However, it was largely boycotted by the regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, where the majority of the population are not ethnic Georgians.

The two regions achieved a kind of de facto independence, recognised by Russia, causing tension between the two nations and between pro-Western and pro-Russian elements within Georgia.

Following a war in 2008 Georgia severed diplomatic ties with the Kremlin, and considers the two regions to be occupied Georgian territory, while Russia and a handful of other countries consider them to be independent countries.

A 2009 report by the EU found that Georgia had started the war when it attacked South Ossetia, and that Russia had the right to defend its peacekeepers in the region through military force.

However, after the conflict widened to include an invasion of the rest of Georgia "much of the Russian military action went far beyond the reasonable limits of defence".

What on earth does that have to do with the European Union?

Well, it's all about that conflict between closer ties with Russia or closer ties with the West.

In 2013 the Georgian parliament passed a resolution supporting EU membership, and officially submitted its membership application in 2022 after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It was given official candidate status in November last year.

However, after the government proposed a law which would require organisations which receive more than 20% of their funding from abroad to register as "foreign agents", the accession process was suspended.

Protestors at the time accused Russia of exerting influence to try and prevent EU accession. The Kremlin said the law was "nothing to do with us".

As a result of all this, October's parliamentary elections were seen as a de facto referendum on Georgia's future - aligned with the EU or aligned with Russia.

The ruling Georgian Dream party campaigned on a "pragmatic policy" toward Russia, and on joining the European Union while "playing by Georgian rules".

It emerged victorious with 54% of the vote, but the four main opposition coalitions accused GD of rigging the election in their favour and President Salome Zourabichvili called the results "illegitimate".

International observers have not ruled either way on whether the election was free and fair.

The EU and United States have imposed sanctions on various members of the government, and accused Russia of interfering in the electoral process.

The Kremlin, for its part, has accused the west of "unprecedented attempts" to interfere and "twist Georgia's hand".

When the government announced it was suspending accession, the protests erupted.

A demonstrator gestures as police block a street as protesters rally against the government's decision to suspend negotiations on joining the European Union (Image: AP Photo/Zurab Tsertsvadze) What do the protestors say?

The opposition parties are refusing to enter parliament as they do not recognise the results of the election, and therefore consider Mr Kobakhidze's government illegitimate.

Demonstrators have been seen carrying both EU and Ukrainian flags, with graffiti appearing in Tblisi saying "no to Russia".

They point out that as of March 2023, 75% of Georgian people supported joining the EU and say GD have no right to unilaterally stop accession talks.

Protestors want new elections, but say they are not trying to violently overthrow the current government.

What do the government say?

The Georgian government says it remains committed to joining the EU, but is pushing back on "blackmail" by the bloc relating to its domestic affairs.

Mr Kobakhidze has accused the protestors of failing to respect the results of the election and trying to "violate the constitutional order".

GD's general secretary, Kakha Kaladze - a former footballer who played close to 300 games for AC Milan and won the Champions League twice - said: "the campaign against our country, is categorically unacceptable, and our so-called friends are involved in this directly".

What has Russia said?

The Kremlin denies any interference or influence in the Georgian political process, but has accused the West of attempting to foment a 'colour revolution'.

While insisting "everything that happens is Georgia's internal affair", spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: "The most direct parallel that can be drawn is the events of the Maidan in Ukraine."

That's a reference to the 2013-14 protests in Ukraine after President Viktor Yanukovych refused to sign an agreement with the EU on closer economic ties, against the will of parliament.

He was ultimately ousted in the 2014 Revolution of Dignity, which Russia views as a Western-backed coup against a democratically elected President.

The Kremlin is clearly signalling it believes the current protests to amount to an attempt at the same thing.

Mr Yanukovych was removed by the Ukrainian parliament, which voted by close to 75% for his ousting.

Following the decision to suspend the accession process, Vladimir Putin said he "admired their courage and character" while stressing that there is no direct relationship with the government in Tblisi.

What have Western nations said?

The EU and the United States have accused GD of 'democratic backsliding' and Russia of interfering in Georgian affairs.

Georgian Dream threatened to ban certain opposition parties during the election campaign, namely those associated with the United National Movement which it says is "entirely controlled from outside and is constantly engaged in hostility towards the state".

The US State Department said: "We reiterate our call to the Georgian government to return to its Euro-Atlantic path, transparently investigate all parliamentary election irregularities, and repeal anti-democratic laws that limit freedoms of assembly and expression."

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said: "We condemn the violence against protesters and regret signals from ruling party not to pursue Georgia’s path to EU and democratic backsliding of the country."

What will happen next?

Despite the talk of a 'colour revolution', it's unlikely that there will be any direct involvement by either Russia or Western countries.

A poll this year - which did not include Abkhazia and South Ossetia - found that 69% of respondents consider Russia to be Georgia's main enemy, up from 35% in 2012.

While the government may want closer political and economic ties with Moscow, it's certainly not about to try and join the Russian Federation and maintains that the two breakaway regions are "illegally occupied".

Given Russia is already in de facto control of both, a turn back toward the EU wouldn't change the status quo much.

Indeed, ahead of the election there was talk of a compromise which would see Russian troops leave Abkhazia and South Ossetia in return for an apology from the Georgian government for the 2008 conflict and "reconciliation" with the breakaway regions.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said: "If there is interest from all sides in normalising these relations… we are ready to help."

However, just because there is unlikely to be any outside involvement, that doesn't mean the potential for a bloody, violent escalation is not there.