The latest house price survey from building society Nationwide was eye-catching.
It showed a 1.2% month-on-month rise in the average UK house price in November, on a seasonally adjusted basis, with the annual rate of increase accelerating to 3.7%, its highest for two years. The annual rate of growth in house prices had been 2.4% in October.
Robert Gardner, chief economist of Nationwide, noted “house prices are just 1% below the all-time high recorded in the summer of 2022”.
And the EY ITEM Club think-tank offered its views on the UK housing market outlook in the wake of the Nationwide survey, published yesterday.
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As always with the housing market, there are, of course, many moving parts.
Mr Gardner highlighted the role which a generally strong UK labour market was playing in supporting house prices.
Matt Swannell, chief economic adviser to the EY ITEM Club, highlighted the part which the two quarter-point cuts in UK base rates by the Bank of England, to take them to 4.75%, had played in providing a fillip to the housing market.
He said: “The housing market has bounced back in recent months as the Bank of England promised and then kicked off its rate-cutting cycle. Over the summer and into autumn, mortgage rates fell, spurring an increase in mortgage activity.”
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However, Mr Swannell, while flagging the prospect of further cuts in benchmark borrowing costs, noted that financial markets now expected fewer reductions in base rates than they did in late summer and flagged the likely impact of this on mortgage rates.
He said: “Financial market expectations of interest-rate cuts have been volatile over the past couple of months, partly reflecting the implications of the UK Autumn Budget and the US presidential election. Markets now expect fewer interest cuts than in late summer, and this will likely feed into slightly higher mortgage rates over the coming weeks.”
And he noted: “The sensitivity of demand to mortgage rates means that higher interest rates could dampen activity slightly.”
Mr Swannell observed that, looking beyond the next few months, the EY ITEM Club expects the Bank of England to lower interest rates “relatively slowly” through 2025, “settling above pre-pandemic levels”.
He added: “With housing valuations remaining quite high, this will likely lead to only a gradual improvement in the housing market.”
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