John Swinney has been warned the Scottish Government risks turning “triumph into disaster” unless the budget “dramatically” reduces delayed discharges in the NHS.

Senior medics at the Royal College of Physicians in Edinburgh have written to the First Minister ahead of Wednesday’s crucial budget to demand social care investment is prioritised.

Professor Andrew Elder, president of the organisation, said continuously high A&E waits will only improve with investment in community care capacity to address the “back door” pinch points causing delays.

Delayed discharges have plagued the NHS for months, largely due to the lack of social care pathways for those ready to be released from hospital.

Measures the group wants to see in the budget includes additional funding to boost home care support and residential care facilities and financial support to train family caregivers.

Professor Elder said hospitals will be "unable to operate at their capacity" until bed blocking is addressed.

"We're calling for investment to meaningfully reduce delayed discharges to ensure that people are receiving care in the most appropriate setting, to free up hospital beds, and to reduce pressure on the entire secondary care sector," he said.

READ MORE: 

Why are charities battling redundancies ahead of budget? 

Budget: What are the Greens and Lib Dems demands and red lines?

Scottish Greens prepared to vote against SNP budget

Scottish Budget: Shona Robison to end council tax freeze

"If the Scottish Government is serious about creating a more efficient and patient-centred healthcare system, then delayed discharges must be dramatically reduced," he added.

"This is not a new problem in Scotland - we would not tolerate such delays which affect many of our older people. The ageing of our population is a triumph and the lack of effective "social care" in Scotland risks turning that triumph into a disaster.

"Amidst a wide range of possible funding targets in health and social care, we believe that funding for the social care of older people must be a top priority."

The latest data from Public Health Scotland found 1,952 people delayed in hospital as of September because of a unavailable social care plan.

Ahead of the budget, which will require the support of at least one opposition party, Mr Swinney said support for the NHS will be at the heart of the Scottish budget.

However, the Scottish Government has also been told businesses in Scotland are looking towards the budget with “significant trepidation” after new figures showed a slump in retail sales.

The Scottish Retail Consortium and KPMG’s retail sales monitor showed total sales were down 2.9% in November compared with the same period in 2023. It is a 2.3% year-on-year reduction when adjusted for inflation.

READ MORE:

SNP and LibDems on cusp of Budget deal before final talks 

Labour told to pay for Glasgow North East by-election 

Fraser Nelson on the 'Glasgow effect' of ingrained poverty

Ewan MacDonald-Russell, deputy head of the SRC, said: "Scotland's retails are already facing a £190 million cost next year from the changes to employer national insurance.

"They will be nervously looking towards Wednesday's Scottish budget with very significant trepidation.

“Bluntly, consumers are already likely to see prices rise in the new year due to rising government-mandated cost pressures, whilst jobs and shops are at risk.

“If the Scottish Government choose to increase costs further through new levies or large business rates increases, it’s Scotland’s shoppers who are likely to face the price in 2025.”

Scottish Labour and the Conservatives have urged the Scottish Government to pass on the 40% rates relief for retail, hospitality and leisure venues seen in England.

The Tories also want 100% rates relief introduced in Scotland for pubs and restaurants.

Meanwhile, George Adam, an SNP MSP who sits on Holyrood’s education committee, said the Scottish Government should use the budget to “ensure momentum continues in Scotland’s schools” with continued investment in additional support needs (ASN).

He said: “Against years of cuts from Westminster, the SNP Government has invested to ensure those who need additional support are getting it.

“The number of pupil support staff are at record highs and have grown by more than 2,000 since 2020. But with demand greater than ever, I would like to see the government continue to meet demand – and deliver more investment to support those with additional support needs.

“This week’s budget is an important opportunity for us to show our commitment to young people with additional support needs.”

Ahead of the budget, Mr Swinney said his government has “engaged constructively” with organisations and businesses as he pledges the budget will “deliver priorities”.

“Unlike the UK Government, we will deliver a Scottish budget that puts the people of Scotland first, reflecting my determination to deliver on the priorities of the people of Scotland,” he said.

“It will be a budget for delivery, showing we have heard the issues people have accessing public services and taking action to address the problems. It will be a budget for hope, putting in place the investment that will set us up to win big in the years to come – creating more and better jobs and putting more money in people’s pockets.”