Analysis: The battle to succeed John Swinney has begun

Stephen Flynn's announcement he is seeking to stand as a candidate for Holyrood in 2026 was a long time coming but not at all unexpected.

Since Nicola Sturgeon exited as SNP leader and First Minister early last year, there has been almost continual talk around the Aberdeen South MP's leadership ambitions.

And while he's ruled out going for the top job at specific times - such as when Humza Yousaf resigned this Spring - he's always made clear that he will stand for the post when the opportunity comes and the time is right.

In April this year, he spelt out his thinking that he would need to be in Holyrood to make his case for becoming SNP leader and First Minister as he said he would not be putting his hat into the ring to succeed Mr Yousaf.

READ MORE: 

• SNP's Stephen Flynn announces bid to become MSP in 2026 election
• Audrey Nicoll welcomes contest with Stephen Flynn
• 'Too close to Sturgeon': John Swinney faces calls to resign
• Ex SNP MP breaks rank to call for leadership change

“I have been asked this question previously the last time there was a leadership contest in the Scottish National Party [when Ms Sturgeon resigned] and I was very clear in my view that I believe that the party leader should have the ability to be the First Minister of Scotland," he told BBC Radio Four's the Today programme.

"Implicit in my answer is the fact that I believe that the party leader should have the ability to be First Minister of Scotland. As you and all your listeners know I am a Member of Parliament in Westminster, I do not have the ability to be the First Minister of Scotland, so I am sure people can read between the lines in that regard.”

Kate Forbes and Stephen Flynn at the launch of the SNP's general election manifesto this year (Image: PA) The implication is abundantly clear, by standing for Holyrood in 2026, Mr Flynn (should he be selected and elected) will be putting himself in a position where he can become SNP leader and First Minister (the latter post only of course if the SNP wins the election and is able to form the next government).

READ MORE:

• Plan to ban MPs and MSPs 'double jobbing' after party rows

However, there could be a couple of major hurdles in the way to thwart Mr Flynn's rise - which could, if the current First Minister John Swinney has his way, be a long time in the making.

Mr Swinney said when he stood to be party leader this year that he would serve a full term as FM if re-elected in 2026.

If he sticks to this timetable, that could mean no leadership race until 2032.

Get Scotland's top politics newsletter straight to your inbox.

Mr Swinney's remarks then took some in the party by surprise - including allies of former leadership candidate Kate Forbes.

Ms Forbes still has her own leadership ambitions, setting them aside this Spring in the interest of party unity to accept Mr Swinney's offer to become Deputy First Minister.

But 2032 seems a long way off before an unofficial race is declared and will inevitably mean speculation over the next eight years over who will succeed Mr Swinney.

Of course, should the SNP not win the 2026 election it is likely that Mr Swinney would resign as SNP leader then and an earlier Flynn/ Forbes leadership race would take place.

Whatever the timetable of the official race, be it 2026, 2032 or sometime in between, today's announcement by Mr Flynn marks the beginning of a new succession battle within the SNP.