As we observe across the pond, a safe 4,500 miles away (give or take a few hundred miles) can we sit here comfortably and say we won't feel any of the repercussions when the next American president is elected?

A definite “No” was the simple answer from University of Glasgow Professor of Citizenship, Chris Carman. An American by birth and a Scot at heart, Professor Carman has lived in the UK for twenty years and his research focuses on elections and public opinion. I spoke to him over the phone about what sort of impact the next president of America will have on Scotland. 

“What happens in the American economy has massive implications to what happens in the global economy. Trump has promised to massively increase the number of tariffs and the size of tariffs and getting rid of a domestic income tax.” Professor Carman said. 

Trump has claimed he will introduce either a 10% or 20% universal levy on all foreign-made goods and a 100% tariff on all imported cars. Economists have said this may significantly disrupt European growth and strain key trade-dependent sectors. 

Professor Carman added: "If we think of the whisky industry which has been struggling for several years this could severely impact them. Every leading economist says this is not good and would lead to international trade wars.”

Many analysts also expect that if Donald Trump wins the election next week, inflation could begin to rise again due to proposed import tariffs. 

Unlike Trump, a Harris administration would leave Scotland’s businesses and economy in safer hands, according to the Professor. 

“A Harris election would likely lead to a steady ship and not lead to much change from a Biden administration here.”, Professor Carman said, “Trump’s tariffs would be abysmal for the United States and the Global Economy." 

So to quote the famous American political consultant, Jimmy Carville, ‘It’s the economy, stupid’ - of course it matters.

But what else? 

READ MORE 

US politicians urged to shield Scotch whisky from tariffs

No matter who wins in the US, the UK will be more isolated than ever

Professor Carman said: “We know Harris is likely to largely adopt policies of the Biden administration on international trade and remain fairly pro-NATO unlike Trump who has said he is sceptical of NATO.”

Climate policy is also another international big hitter, the professor says. A vote in favour of either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will not only affect US climate policy, but also international ones. 

“Trump would substantially change climate change policies and roll back on promises and Scotland does look to the United States as an exporter of renewable energy.  If Trump were to undo Biden policies then that would not be good for Scotland.”

Recent ‘political swiping’ from across the pond has also not helped international relations, says Professor Carman. 

Get Scotland's top politics newsletter straight to your inbox

Speaking to journalists after First Minister’s Questions last week, First Minister John Swinney urged Americans to vote for Ms Harris, saying, “I have not come to that conclusion only because Donald Trump is opposed to Scottish independence.”

Since then, Trump’s team have branded Swinney’s comments on the US Presidential Election “appalling“, arguing Trump businesses employ many scots and help local businesses “thrive”. Professor Carman said there is “a lack of consensus to the extent to which the Trump organisation contributes to the Scottish economy.” 

Though it helps when global leaders maintain good relationships, Professor Carmon said on the world stage the show must go on. 

“There’s evidence that Trump holds grudges. On the other hand though he tends to be a highly transactional politician", Professor Carman said: "The US still exists in the world and he will have to get on with the world.”