A Donald Trump win in this week’s US presidential election will throw SNP policy into complete disarray, with the Scottish government’s position on Trident removal seen as “unbelievably irresponsible” and “corrosive” to European security.

The warning comes from Scotland’s leading expert on global security Professor Peter Jackson. He holds the chair in global security at the University of Glasgow, and is the founder and co-director of the Scottish Council on Global Affairs - which is supported by the SNP government.

In a wide-ranging interview with the Herald on Sunday about the consequences of a Trump win for Scotland, Britain, Europe, America and the world, Jackson explored the issue of SNP policy relating to NATO and the Trident nuclear deterrent.

The SNP voted in 2012 to ditch its 30-year policy of opposition to NATO. The Scottish government’s position is now to apply for NATO membership in the event of independence, but also to pursue removal of Trident from Scotland.

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Jackson believes that it would be difficult for an independent Scotland to attain NATO membership if it was intent on removing Trident, due to the instability that would create in the alliance, at a time when Trump is in the White House and there is war in Ukraine. 

Jackson noted that matters would come to a head should support for independence start rising again and there is a push for another referendum. Rising support, he believes, would be predicated on future policy decisions made by a Westminster government upsetting the Scottish electorate.

Trump is hostile to NATO, and there are doubts about his commitment to Article 5 of the alliance which guarantees mutual defence in the event of attack. Trump has even encouraged Vladimir Putin to attack NATO allies. Britain, together with France, provides the only nuclear deterrent on the continent.

Friction with NATO could also be problematic for the SNP’s long-term aim of rejoining the European Union should independence ever be achieved.

Jackson says that America’s “intelligence community and security establishment” are horrified at the prospect of Scottish independence “creating a hole in the fence” when it comes to NATO.

(Image: British Army) “The SNP has sorted its NATO problem, but I don’t think it’s sorted its Trident problems,” he said. “That would still have to be negotiated and, in the world we’re talking about, doing something rash to Britain’s nuclear deterrent would be unbelievably irresponsible.”

There is “no question” that Trident removal would play into Russian hands. “It would diminish the credibility of Article 5, and that’s just the opposite of what we need for European security.” Trident removal “would be deeply corrosive to European security."

If US commitment to support European allies under Article 5 were in doubt thanks to a Trump presidency, Scotland removing Trident would increase panic. 

“An effective and completely operational Trident is hugely important to the UK’s force posture and NATO’s force posture. 

“So this is the dilemma that [supporters of] Scottish independence would need to wrestle with. In my view, there are some persuasive arguments for independence but international security probably isn’t one of them. Trade, yes. The security of Trident is of fundamental importance."

Independence, he said, cannot be seen to “undermine European security. That’s why if you speak to the Lithuanians, Latvians or even the Finns they hate the idea of Scottish independence”.

An independent Scotland would be strategically important for security in the Arctic, and the ‘Five-Eyes’ intelligence system. Scotland’s geography makes it “absolutely vital for early warning. Scotland has this position that’s more important than people realise in terms of intelligence-gathering strategically”.

Jackson added: “Within the wider Holyrood establishment, I don’t think they understand how completely integrated Scotland would need to be in NATO if independence happened."

Removing Trident if Trump were president would come amid “an international order that will have been weakened if not be in disarray. It will be a lot less stable than it is now”.

There are diplomats, Jackson says, who “understand the argument for independence, but only still very much as an independent Scotland embedded in NATO”. Scotland’s position in terms of the Arctic impacts US, UK and European security.

The best, most “sane”, policy for the SNP during any future debate on independence is to make Trident removal a “bargaining chip” to help smooth Brexit-style negotiations with London, rather than an immediately achievable aim. 

Scotland should consider “leasing Faslane in the short-term on the understanding” that Trident would be “relocated” at some future point.

Jackson says Russia unquestionably “interfered” in the 2014 referendum. However, since then Kremlin disinformation operations have become “much more sophisticated” and now incorporate AI. 

He believes Scotland would experience a ‘firehose of disinformation’ if there were another referendum, adding: “It’s in Russia’s interest to weaken the UK overall.”

Given that leading figures in the Yes movement have appeared on Russia Today - the Kremlin’s propaganda channel - including former First Minister Alex Salmond who fronted his own show, Jackson noted that from an international perspective “the legacy and the history of the SNP isn’t encouraging”.