Labour’s support in Scotland has fallen to its lowest level since Nicola Sturgeon stepped down as first minister, with a new poll showing a sharp drop following Rachel Reeves's budget.

The survey by Norstat for the Sunday Times put Labour on 23% at the constituency vote, down seven points since August. On the list the party was at 22%, down six points.

The SNP’s position is unchanged, holding at 33% on the constituency and 29% on the regional list.

According to projections by Sir John Curtice, this would give Mr Sarwar’s party 29 MSPs, while the SNP would return 51.

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The Scottish Conservatives are up three points in the constituency vote to 15% and 14% on the list.

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has added two points in constituencies and is on the list to win the support of 11% in both.

The Greens are on 6% in the constituency and 9% on the list while the Lib Dems are 10% in the constituency and 9% on the list.

Prof Curtice projected the Tories would return 16 MSPs, down from 31, while Reform would win 12, the Lib Dems 11 and the Greens 10.

This would leave the SNP and Greens four seats short of a pro-independence majority.

However, they would still have more seats than Labour, the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats combined, leaving Reform as the wild card.

Just 17% of respondents believe Ms Reeves’s budget will have a positive impact on their household while 29% said it would be negative.

Writing in the paper, Prof Curtice said: “Saturday’s poll reveals that voter disillusion with the new prime minister and UK government has taken a significant toll on the party’s prospects north of the border.

"Labour’s Westminster support is down by nine points since Norstat’s previous poll in August and has plummeted by 12 points since July. Sir Keir Starmer’s net approval rating has fallen to a record low of -28, down from -5 in August.

“Crucially for Anas Sarwar, Labour’s Holyrood ratings are damaged too.

"The party’s constituency vote is down seven points to 23%, the party’s lowest rating since Nicola Sturgeon announced her resignation in February last year.

"The position on the regional vote is no better.

“Yet there is little sign of a recovery in the SNP’s fortunes. The party’s support has only edged up since August, and, at 30%, the party’s Westminster rating simply matches its disappointing performance in July. Swinney’s net approval rating is unchanged, and still in negative territory.”

Speaking on the BBC’s Sunday Show, Mr Sarwar said there were “three things that will fundamentally decide the Scottish Parliament election.”

He said: “One is whether people believe Scotland is going in the right direction under the SNP.

“Second, if they believe that we have an alternative plan to change direction for Scotland and deliver a more positive future.

“And third, of course, whether they believe a UK Labour Government is delivering for Scotland.

“And in all three of those, I think people have already decided that they can see that this is an incompetent SNP, that's lost its way.

“It's not the party it once was. We, over the course of the next 18 months, will be setting out what we would do differently if elected as a Scottish Labour government.

“And of course, this budget is a positive opportunity for us to show people the different approach we are now taking because we have a Labour government.

“We would not been able to end the era of austerity, deliver that vital new investment and prioritise economic growth if Scots hadn't chosen to get rid of a rotten Tory government, elect Scottish Labour MPs and elect a UK Labour government.”