Are the Greens using budget to take ultimate revenge on SNP?

Six months after the Bute House Agreement shattered, the Greens are using the Scottish budget to position themselves to get the ultimate revenge on the SNP.

The Greens have backed every SNP budget since 2016 but at their conference in Greenock, they delivered blows to Swinney’s hopes of passing the December budget unscathed.

But how much of a risk is facing the SNP – are the Greens gunning for revenge or simply all talk?

The asks from co-leader Harvie and Slater are straightforward – Green MSPs will only back the budget if the council tax freeze is lifted.

It seems like a catastrophic barrier for the SNP – but in reality, it is conditions already being considered by the Scottish Government.

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When Humza Yousaf announced the council tax freeze last year, the Greens were outraged they weren’t consulted.

The anger rumbled on. Ministers had to come up with additional funding as an incentive for councils to adopt the freeze.

Shona Robison has already signalled she would be willing to end the freeze as a budget compromise.

Council leaders would have fought hard against a future freeze, making it an easy win for the Greens.

The Greens are one of the few parties who would welcome an early election, hoping to sweep up disgruntled SNP voters who harbour anger over ditched policies.

Greens co-leaders Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater. (Image: Colin Mearns) But in doing so, it would likely be a fatal blow that would sink the SNP Government and open the door to Labour’s Anas Sarwar.

Under a Labour-led Holyrood government, the Greens could lose the significant bargaining power they hold over the SNP, with parties like the Lib Dems likely to replace them in calling some of the shots.

So, can any Holyrood party really benefit from an early election or is it in everyone’s best interests to get a deal done?

If an election was called tomorrow, it would likely send Russell Findlay’s Tories into a panic, especially after two Aberdeenshire councillors defected to Reform.

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Nigel Farage’s party is tipped to take just under a dozen seats from the Tories in Holyrood.

Then there’s the SNP. An early election is clearly not in their best interests. The general election result and the ongoing Operation Branchform are just a few reasons why.

Prior to the general election, Sarwar would have jumped at the chance of a Scottish election. And while he may tell you that is still the case, an early election could be a thorn in his side as voters react to a turbulent start for Keir Starmer.

And the Lib Dems would no doubt love to replicate their party’s general election result. But their risk? It’s being forgotten as the above parties battle it out with Reform also joining the rammy.

Ultimately, if the Greens want revenge for the way the Bute House Agreement ended, it is theirs to take. They have the power and the numbers to bring down the budget.

But their hold over the government relies on the SNP being in power, meaning revenge may not be served after all.