Nicola Sturgeon should not contest her SNP seat at the Holyrood elections in 2026 as she runs a "real risk" of becoming a distraction for the party she once led, according to a polling expert.
The SNP has also been warned against "bitter infighting" which could emerge if significant numbers of former MPs set their sights on the Scottish Parliament.
The SNP plummeted from 48 seats in Westminster to just nine in July, leading to discussions around whether the defeated MPs would make a beeline for Holyrood.
High profile former MP Joanna Cherry KC, the former Edinburgh South West MP, has already ruled herself out of a Holyrood bid, instead choosing to return to her legal career.
The party's former Westminster defence spokesman Stewart McDonald has also decided against a Holyrood move to "explore new paths" after nine years as a Glasgow South MP.
MSPs Christine Grahame and James Dornan had previously announced their intention to step aside in 2026, while recently expelled John Mason also set to step down, freeing up three seats.
However, SNP members have until November 11 to submit an application to the party's National Executive Committee (NEC) before a strict selection process unfolds.
READ MORE:
SNP collapse hasn’t translated into collapsing Independence support
Why is Operation Branchform taking so long?
Murray Foote to step down as SNP chief executive
Sturgeon felt 'affinity' with Boris Johnson on Covid
Allan Faulds, who runs Ballot Box Scotland, said Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar could use a potential Sturgeon candidacy to his advance.
He previously stood against Ms Sturgeon in the Glasgow Southside seat.
Mr Faulds said: "Nicola Sturgeon was very, very popular as first minister and then almost immediately there was a fair bit of tarnishing of that legacy, and there's ongoing black cloud of Operation Branchform.
"I was kind of working on the assumption that Nicola Sturgeon will stand down at the next election to kind of give that space.
"And it probably is better for the SNP in terms of campaigning if the former first minister is standing down than if she recontested the election.
"Because then Labour - and remember in 2021 it was actually Anas Sarwar who stood against Nicola Sturgeon - that potentially ends up becoming the dominant narrative in that constituency - the 'don't you want to get Sturgeon out?' argument.
Candidates will be selected in April, to give the party a whole year to campaign for the 2026 election, which will be held in May that year.
But Mr Faulds has also warned the SNP leadership of the potential backlash it could receive if former MPs are given priority over MSPs or new candidates.
He said the SNP may consider bringing over some of its highest profile former MPs – such as former Glasgow Central MP Alison Thewliss.
However, he said: “There is a caution there which is that if there is this flood of former MPs trying to get into Holyrood, and you consider the SNP are going to lose at least a quarter of their seats, you have got plenty of MSPs whose seats are at risk, does that look like you’re getting your best talent in and you’re taking it seriously and voters will be happy with those people being elected.
“Or does it just look like more rounds of bitter infighting, which we have seen a lot of over the past 18 months.
READ MORE:
Nicola Sturgeon: 2014 Indyref 'wasn't all sweetness and light'
Expelled SNP MSP rules out by-election over Labour fears
John Mason 'considering' appeal against SNP expulsion
Former SNP MP Joanna Cherry resumes legal career
“Does that help or is it just feeding this narrative that the party is falling to bits and they’re all turning on each other.”
“It’s kind of fraught, it’s the kind of thing where if there is some attempt to do this – some grand strategy – then that will probably go very badly. But if it is two or three former MPs off their own backs that’s probably more manageable," he added.
The 2021 Holyrood election saw a contentious battle between Ms Cherry and now-Constitution Secretary Angus Robertson.
It led to a bitter row within the party, with Ms Cherry blaming “outside interference” for blocking her run for the Edinburgh Central seat in Holyrood.
Recent polling carried out by Survation showed both Labour and the SNP were on 31% for the Holyrood constituency vote.
That mirrors the previous poll from May for the SNP but is a 6% fall for Labour.
On the list vote, the SNP is on 28%, down two, while Labour is on 26%, down nine.
Mr Faulds predicted this could see Labour returned to Holyrood as the largest party with 44 MPs, while the SNP would be on 38.
The Tories would be placed on 15 seats, while the Greens and Lib Dems would be on 11 each, with Reform on 10.
The most likely scenario in this case, Mr Faulds said, is a minority Labour government in Holyrood.
Alex Kerr, the SNP’s national secretary, told members in an email: “As ever, we seek to make our candidate team as representative of modern Scotland as possible, and so particularly encourage people from backgrounds that are currently under-represented in the Scottish Parliament to put themselves forward if they feel that they meet the criteria as a candidate.”
A SNP spokeswoman said: "With Keir Starmer's Labour Party imposing nothing but Westminster cuts and chaos on Scotland, the 2026 election is an opportunity for people to vote SNP for a party that stands up for people across Scotland and vote for SNP candidates who will always put their constituents priorities first."
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules hereLast Updated:
Report this comment Cancel