Late last month, the Cabinet Secretary for Finance confirmed to the Scottish Parliament that the Scottish budget will be presented on the 4th December.

Nowadays, the Scottish budget is a complex process governed by a web of rules, forecasts, and funding "reconciliations" that determine how much the government has to spend each year.

To help demystify all this, at the Scottish Fiscal Commission we have published a series of short, informative videos on our website www.fiscalcommission.scot. These explain how tax policies and Scotland’s relative economic performance shape the funding available, and how social security commitments are becoming an increasingly significant part of the budget.

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With seven weeks now until budget day, the timeline may seem generous. But preparing a near-£60 billion budget and making decisions on devolved taxes, social security, and spending priorities leaves little time to align everything.

One challenge is the uncertainty surrounding the UK Budget, set for 30th October. Despite Scotland's tax devolution, much of the Scottish Government’s funding still hinges on decisions made by the UK Government in their Budget.

This year, there is added uncertainty due to the new UK Government’s refreshed policy agenda and debates over the fiscal rules the new Chancellor may set to oversee the UK public finances. These decisions, and how they impact upon the trajectory of UK spending, will all have material effects on Scotland’s budget.

Furthermore, the specific funding attached to UK policy announcements, from public sector pay to university funding and investing in net zero, could bring either positive or negative news for the Scottish budget. For example, if the UK Government decides to fund recently-announced UK pay awards through additional borrowing, it could result in substantial Barnett consequentials for Scotland. However, if these are funded by internal efficiencies within Whitehall departments, these contributions could be much smaller.

Only after the UK Budget is announced - just five weeks before the Scottish budget - will Scottish ministers have a clearer sense of their spending envelope for next year.

Meanwhile, at the Scottish Fiscal Commission – as Scotland’s independent fiscal and economic forecaster – we will be working closely with the Scottish Government between now and December on the devolved areas of the public finances. We’ll provide our analysis of forecasts for devolved taxes – including income tax – and social security, which includes our assessment of any policy options under consideration.

This independent analysis is crucial to the budget process, ensuring that ministers are fully aware of the cost or savings implications of their decisions. The impartiality of our work adds rigor to policy decision-making and follows best international practice.

These discussions will continue over the coming weeks, but ten working days before the budget, the government must provide us with final policy decisions. Beyond this point, no further policy changes will be costed or included in our analysis.

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The period leading up to budget day is intense, and some have questioned whether such a short timeline is wise. The compressed schedule largely stems from the structure of the Fiscal Framework and the interconnectedness of UK Government decisions with the Scottish budget. Additionally, the Scottish Parliament needs adequate time to scrutinize the budget before the new financial year in April.

There is, however, room for improvement. The UK Government’s promise to move towards multi-year spending reviews, along with a stronger emphasis on medium-term financial planning by the Scottish Government, should reduce some of the uncertainties faced during an annual budgeting cycle.

A shift in political culture will also help. Focusing less on immediate issues and more on long-term planning would make the budget less of an annual high-stakes event and more of a regular update on how the government is progressing with its fiscal goals and policy ambitions. A long-term focus is crucial for addressing pressing fiscal challenges, including Scotland’s aging population and climate change.

In March last year, the Parliament’s finance committee called for a debate on fiscal sustainability.  The Government have now agreed that this will take place later this month.

While there are certainly improvements that could be made to the budget process, responsibility also lies with both parliamentarians and the government to foster a more future-oriented approach. Hopefully this upcoming debate will be an opportunity for fresh thinking and a renewed commitment to working in partnership across political boundaries to address the long-term challenges and priorities facing Scotland’s finances.

Graeme Roy is professor of economics at the University of Glasgow’s Adam Smith Business School