Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ inaugural Budget this month is shaping up to be a significant milestone in the life of the new UK Government. More importantly it could be a watershed moment for our economy and public finances.

The fiscal inheritance is daunting. Government spending continues to exceed revenues year after year, indeed the last surplus was almost two and a half decades ago. Consequently the national debt has swollen to new highs.

The inauspicious economic backdrop is challenging too. In Scotland consumers are focusing only on priorities, as demonstrated by anaemic retail sales growth. Retail Consortium polling on consumer sentiment show people’s expectations for the economy and their personal finances over the next few months falling, with confidence apparently impacted by negative publicity around the outlook for public sector finances.

So the priorities for the Chancellor’s Budget and accompanying business tax roadmap must be two-fold.

Firstly, get to grips with the public finances and chart a path to balancing the books and reducing government debt. Secondly, boost economic growth.


Read more:

Thankfully, the new UK administration has outlined measures which should help improve the buoyancy of the economy. Plans to streamline the planning system and unlock investment in energy infrastructure have already been unveiled.

The case for growth is clear. It improves living standards and generates the tax receipts which fund public services. Slow growth on the other hand leaves us vulnerable to further economic shocks. Yet neither Westminster nor Holyrood have been terribly good at delivering growth of late.

As the largest private sector employer and a vital cog in the economic machinery retail has a key role to play in delivering growth.

Retailers view the Budget as an opportunity to inject confidence back into the economy, helping consumer spending take wing and stimulating much needed investment by businesses.

There is no path to recovery which doesn’t consider the impact on consumer spending. A quarter of a million Scottish retail jobs directly rely on it.

With domestic households still chary of spending, a fresh effort should be made to attract high spending visitors from abroad. They make a valuable contribution through purchases of goods and holidaying here, yet international tourist spend has shifted to the Continent because of the tax savings on offer. Reinstating tax-free shopping would lift international visitor numbers, generate revenues and jobs in retail, tourism and hospitality here in Scotland, and boost growth.

For all the blizzard of legislation announced in the King's Speech, there was little to actually reduce the cost of operating a retail business. Indeed, several Bills will add to the cumulative burden of paperwork. This reinforces the need for action on business tax.

Ministers should move swiftly to make good on Labour’s manifesto pledge to reform business rates. Rates remain onerous across the UK, particularly for property-intensive sectors such as retail. The detail of the mooted reforms remains opaque, but any changes could be replicated here in Scotland. Ultimately, this must lead to the retail rates burden being reduced which would help ailing high streets.

UK Ministers are to turn the Apprenticeship Levy into a Growth & Skills Levy and make it more flexible for levy-payers. This is encouraging albeit again the detail remains fuzzy. The Apprenticeship Levy has been a dog’s breakfast and just another tax on employment as far as levy-payers within Scottish retail are concerned. Retail levy-payers shell out £15 million annually and want to understand how they and retail colleagues will benefit.

Finally, the Chancellor needs to be realistic about the burdens businesses can bear right now. This is especially the case with cost pressures continuing in the supply chain including for freight, and with expansive legislative reforms to industrial relations and workforce practices set to push up retailers’ outgoings. Meanwhile, several UK-wide and expensive new initiatives are in the pipeline including extended producer responsibility for packaging, due to come into effect next year, and the roll out of the deposit return scheme for drinks bottles and cans, due in 2027.

An agenda which injects confidence into the economy should make the twin challenges of growth and sustainable finances easier. The choices that the Chancellor will make will be consequential for shoppers, shops and all of us for years to come.

David Lonsdale is director of the Scottish Retail Consortium