Sir Keir Starmer made much of his desire for a more honest conversation between government and public as part of his ‘pitch’ to the country back in July. Since taking power, the UK Labour Government’s communications on the economy and public finances in particular have certainly been blunt in their assessment of the challenges.

Within a month of becoming Chancellor, Rachel Reeves signalled immediate cost cutting measures, which she argued were required to fill a £22 billion ‘black hole’ in government finances uncovered as part of her ‘spending inheritance’ review. The highest-profile measure aimed at saving public money has been the restriction of the winter fuel payment to pensioners on certain means-tested benefits.

Meanwhile, at Holyrood, Finance Secretary Shona Robison has delivered similarly tough economic messages in recent months, announcing equivalent cuts to winter fuel payments, reintroduction of peak rail fares, and cuts to various other areas of Scottish Government spending in a bid to fill a hole in the Scottish public finances amounting to hundreds of millions of pounds.

Keir Starmer’s warning that the UK Autumn budget, due at the end of this month, will require us all to "accept short-term pain for long-term good" has prepared the ground for further tough financial messages to come.

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So far, so gloomy. And our latest Ipsos Scotland polling suggests that the Scottish public is equally negative in its assessment of the current state of the economy – 76% say the Scotland economy is currently in a ‘poor’ state, with just 20% saying it is in a ‘good’ state. Neither do they expect it to improve particularly quickly – 75% expect the Scottish economy to either stay the same (29%) or get worse (46%) in the next 12 months.

It seems we have absorbed the messages of our political leaders and are braced for further short-term economic pain.

The new Labour Government is keen to remind us that they place the blame for the country’s economic woes firmly with the previous Conservative administration, with Scottish Labour pointing an additional finger of blame at the SNP Scottish Government for good measure. In response, the SNP Scottish Government have pointed the finger back at Labour, blaming their decision on winter fuel payments for an estimated £160 million funding shortfall. But who do the public think should shoulder the blame?

It appears that, for now at least, the Scottish public is more inclined to blame previous rather than current governments, both at Westminster and Holyrood. When asked what they think has contributed most to the Scottish economy being in a poor state, 54% opt for ‘decisions made by former Conservative UK Prime Ministers and Chancellors between 2010 and 2024’. At 52%, the proportion who blame ‘decisions made by former SNP First Ministers and Cabinet Secretaries for Finance between 2011 and 2024’ is not far behind.

While the new(ish) teams in government do not escape blame entirely, for the moment, people are less likely to hold them accountable than at their predecessors. Three months into their term in office, 3 in 10 (28%) of those who think the Scottish economy is in a poor state see ‘decisions made by the current Labour Prime Minister, Keir Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ as one of the factors contributing most to this.

Similarly, John Swinney and Shona Robison can take some comfort from the fact that only around a third (35%) attribute the perceived poor state of the Scottish economy to decisions they have taken since acquiring their respective roles of First Minister and Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Local Government in May.

However, that does not mean that the Scottish public is confident in either of their current governments’ abilities to turn the economy around. Almost two thirds (64%) say they are not confident that the Labour Party has a good long-term economic plan for the UK, while an almost identical proportion (63%) say they are ‘not confident’ in the SNP’s long-term plans for Scotland’s economy.

Almost two thirds (64%) say they are not confident that the Labour Party has a good long-term economic plan Almost two thirds (64%) say they are not confident that the Labour Party has a good long-term economic plan 

So what lessons should Rachel Reeves and Shona Robison take from this? On the one hand, it seems clear that their tough messaging is in line with the current public mood – there does not seem to be any expectation of ‘quick fixes’ for either the UK or Scottish economies’ current challenges. On the other hand, the lack of public confidence in their future economic plans suggest that neither government is succeeding in convincing the public that they currently have a clear strategy for lifting the country out of the economic quagmire.

If the public is not convinced that ‘short term pain’ will actually lead to ‘long term good’, then both parties may struggle to gain public support for what they argue are necessary measures to rebalance the books and enable future investment and growth in both public services and the wider economy.

The upcoming UK budget and the Scottish Government budget due later in the year are crucial opportunities for each government to convince the public that there is light at the end of the economic tunnel. But if the promised ‘long term gains’ do not begin to materialise over the next year or so, it seems unlikely that the previous government – or wider external factors – will shoulder the blame for much longer.

Rachel Ormston is a Research Director at Ipsos Scotland