The not entirely unexpected confirmation of Petroineos’ decision to close its Grangemouth oil refinery has re-opened some depressingly familiar arguments about the resilience of the Scottish economy.

The risk to 400 jobs on the site is devastating enough – but that’s just the beginning.  According to recent analysis by Scottish Enterprise and PwC, the refinery and its supply chain contribute more than £400 million to the Scottish economy and support more than 2,800 jobs.

These jobs will be in everything from making highly specialised industrial components to supplying the canteen – and then there’s the local shops and other outlets that workers visit on their way to and from their shifts, or the bars and restaurants they visit at evenings and weekends. Fair to say, then, that the repercussions will be felt across the economy and across the country.

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This impact on the small businesses who supply the plant has been a key focus of both the UK and Scottish governments since the announcement. That’s why we at the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) have been heavily involved in discussions through the Grangemouth Future Industry Board on how best to support the resilience of these firms in the months ahead.

The Grangemouth news, of course, came around the same time that Falkirk-based bus manufacturer Alexander Dennis said 160 jobs were at risk, and less than a fortnight after more than 440 jobs were put at risk at the Mitsubishi Electric factory in Livingston.

Again, these sites will have supply chains and their employees will spend money across the local economy – meaning the effects of any job losses will be felt far beyond the factory gates.

Further, although all these examples involve very different companies facing different issues, each reminds us of the same age-old weakness in the Scottish economy: local communities having an over-reliance on a small number of large employers.

We’ve seen it time and again. With the decline of heavy industry in the 1970s and 80s, there was a rush to replace those traditional jobs with new ones in the emerging technology sector. When those jobs could be done more cheaply in Eastern Europe or Asia, they also left, to be replaced with financial services. And so it goes on.

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I completely understand the appeal of rushing to replace one mass-employer with another. But the very factors that enable these industries to be swift potential inward investors here mean they can up-sticks and go elsewhere with equal ease. They’re known as global industries for a reason.

However, just as some of these arguments are, alas, well-worn, so are some of the potential solutions. 

The most obvious one is to broaden our economic base, thereby making it stronger, spreading our risk and leaving us less exposed to international shocks. In practice, that means having more smaller businesses in a wide range of sectors.

This is not something that is necessarily in any government’s gift, but both Holyrood and Westminster could pursue economic strategies that create the conditions in which rising business birth and survival rates are most likely to happen. I could fill the rest of this newspaper with what that might entail in detailed policy terms, but things like taxing fairly and regulating sensibly would be near the top of any list.

Another practical step would be that, when a closure like Grangemouth is on the cards, the government response must include helping more of those who do lose their jobs to start their own business.

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Governments also need, as we’ve argued for some time, to work with the economy we have (not the one we wish we had) and wring every last drop of advantage out of opportunities that we spot. Opportunities like - to pick a topical example - the Commonwealth Games coming back to Glasgow in 2026.

According to Commonwealth Games Scotland, “hundreds of thousands” of visitors, and their spending power, are set to arrive in the city.  Splendid. But to make sure our pubs, restaurants and shops benefit from the extra footfall, we’ll need to make sure that marketing restrictions and road closures don’t hamper trade.

Beyond that, there will be thousands of supply-chain opportunities for small Scottish firms providing everything from security to catering. To realise this economic benefit, however, the Games’ organisers will need to get what they’re promising will be a “Scotland-focused procurement strategy” right.

No economy can be 100% resilient to global external shocks but if we learn the lessons of our past, we boost our odds of not repeating it.

Colin Borland is director of devolved nations at the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB)