Scottish Labour’s popularity has plummeted after Sir Keir Starmer's decision to cut the winter fuel payment, with a new poll showing them losing almost one in ten of their voters. 

Despite the drop in support, Anas Sarwar looks set to become Scotland’s next first minister, with his party becoming Holyrood's biggest after the 2026 election.

The Survation poll carried out for Progress Scotland, the thinktank set up by Angus Robertson, also forecasts Nigel Farage’s Reform UK to take 10 seats in the Scottish Parliament, just behind the Scottish Greens and Liberal Democrats.

READ MORE

When asked how they would vote at a general election, 31% of Scots said they would back Labour, down nine points from the firm’s last survey in May and down four points on their election result.

The SNP were also on 31 points, unchanged since May and up one point on their disastrous election result.

The Tories were on 14%, Reform on 13% and the Lib Dems on 9%.

Both Labour and the SNP are on 31% for the Holyrood constituency vote. While that mirrors John Swinney’s party standing in Survation’s May poll, it is a fall of 6% for Labour.

The Tories have also fallen, down 5%, to 13% while the Lib Dems are on 8% and Reform on 9%. The Greens, who only traditionally stand in a handful of constituencies, are on 6%, while Alex Salmond’s Alba is on 1%.

On the list vote, the SNP is on 28%, down two, while Labour is on 26%, down nine.

The Tories are down four to 14%, while the Lib Dems, Reform and the Greens are all on 10%. Alba are on just 3%.

Ballot Box Scotland’s Allan Faulds said this would see Labour returned as the largest party with 44 MSPs.

The SNP would be on 38, the Tories 15, the Greens and the Lib Dems on 11 each, while Reform would win 10.

In these circumstances, the only way John Swinney could block a Labour government would be to try and form some sort of deal with the Scottish Greens.

But even them it would almost certainly be blocked by the unionist parties.

Nevertheless, Labour will be worried by the falling polling which comes after the party pushed ahead with a cut to the winter fuel payment.

The decision to move from a universal payment for all pensioners to only sending the payout to those receiving pension credit or certain other benefits was announced in July by Chancellor Rachel Reeves as part of her plan to tackle a £22bn black hole in the public finances.

The policy is expected to reduce the number of pensioners in receipt of the payment payment by 10 million. In Scotland, up to 900,000 will lose out.

The SNP’s Pete Wishart said: “It’s little wonder people are unhappy with Keir Starmer's continuation of the same cruel Tory austerity agenda which is cutting billions of pounds from public services and household incomes.

“After breaking their election promises within a matter of weeks, it’s clear voters can see that Keir Starmer's Labour party cannot be trusted and is not putting ordinary people first.

“Keir Starmer’s government has proven that Labour will ignore the interests and priorities of Scotland in exactly the same way as the Tories did - only the SNP can be trusted to stand up for Scotland.

“Ten years after the independence referendum, and consecutive Westminster governments failing the people of Scotland, it’s clearer than ever that Scotland deserves the right to choose a better future as a normal independent country."

Sir Keir Starmer and Dame Jackie Baillie (Image: Andrew Milligan/PA)

Dame Jackie Baillie, the Deputy Leader of Scottish Labour, said: “After 17 years of the SNP government, this poll shows voters want the next Parliament to focus on real change for Scotland.

"A Scottish Labour government in the service of working people will focus on restoring our NHS, growing our economy and turning Scotland into a clean energy superpower.

"This is the change Scotland needs."