Curtice: Second independence referendum chances stalled

Prof Curtice told The Herald the divisive constitutional issue "still hangs over Scotland" in a way former prime minister David Cameron could not have anticipated when he conceded to a referendum in 2012.

He offered a number of explanations on why a second independence referendum had not been achieved, including the lack of a pro-independence "figurehead" in recent years.

Wednesday marks a decade since the first Scottish independence referendum, held on September 18 2014.

The effects of 17 years in government for the SNP had also taken its toll, with a future vote up in the air after polls suggested the SNP could fail to form government in Holyrood in 2026.

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Speaking exclusively to The Herald ahead of the 10 year anniversary of the referendum, he said: "I think the independence movement is stalled because of the difficulties of the SNP. But the point is it has stalled, but it's not dead.

"One of the problems facing the nationalists is that they now lack a charismatic leader, or leaders, to promote the Yes cause.

"Both sides are in a weak position on this criteria. It's hard to imagine who could possibly leader the unionist argument at the moment."

In recent years the independence movement has been marred with friction following the public falling out of former figureheads Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon.

More recently, the dismantling of the Bute House Agreement - a powersharing deal between the Greens and SNP - has caused disunity.

"One of the single political strengths that the nationalists have had, really, throughout the whole 25 years of devolution has been that politically they were united whereas the unionists - until the very end of the 2014 campaign - were fragmented.

Professor Sir John Curtice. (Image: Image: Free) "The risk that has been kicking around the nationalist movement in the last three or four years in the wake of the whole Salmond Sturgeon row and the rise of the Greens is that political unity has been frayed at the edges."

The polling guru also described Ms Sturgeon, the former first minister's "greatest failure" as failing to capitalise on disgruntlement over the UK's exit from the European Union. 

"Scotland now faces very different choices from 10 years ago," he said. "It is in the UK but outside the EU or inside the EU but outside of the UK.

"We've not had this debate. This was Sturgeon's greatest failure after the pandemic that she did not get this debate started."

The relationship between Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon has impacted the independence debate, according to Prof Sir John Curtice. (Image: PA)

Last week's Survation poll, commissioned by Scotland in Union, placed support for independence at 41% compared to 59% against among decided voters.

But polls from both July and August placed the support much closer, with pro-independence support on 48% compared to 52% for staying in the UK.

Polling from last week also showed Labour and the SNP were neck-and-neck in support ahead of the 2026 Holyrood election.

The two parties were on 28% support in the constituency vote, while Anas Sarwar's party enjoyed a one point lead of John Swinney's SNP at 25% and 24% respectively.

Polling analysis, including from Ballot Box Scotland, warned those results could mean the SNP struggles to form a majority, with pro-union parties instead teaming up to form government.

Prof Curtice said: "While polling suggests support for independence has fluctuated around the 50% mark in the last few years, politically a referendum could not be further away following the UK general election which saw a majority Labour government take office.

"With the UK ending up with a majority Labour Government, which is in a strong position to say no (to a refenedum), it has meant the issue (independence) is not being pursued."

The signs of hope for the independence movement - and the SNP - comes from a potential "mid-term backlash" for the UK Government, particularly as it faces criticism over cuts to the winter fuel payment to plug a £2 billion spending black hole.

"Having a Yes majority in Holyrood will undoubtedly make independence more difficult to pursue.

"But there are very difficult circumstances facing the UK Government and whether or not it is going to succeed in turning things around and whether if it is still struggling in two years time.

"It could suffer a mid-term backlash and that could be good for the independence debate and for the SNP in government."

He said a second independence referendum was "off for at least the next four years".

The chances of an imminent vote on the constitution disappeared after former prime minister Liz Truss's mini-budget and said a hung UK parliament would have been an ideal negotiating situation for the Scottish Government.

He added: "There is no doubt that in the short run, independence is not going to happen but where we will be by 2030 who knows.

"The demand has not gone away because support for independence is still running at just under 50%.

"We know that it is now heavily intertwined with people's attitudes towards Brexit. That's a major difference from 2014. 

"We know that people who want to be inside the EU are about three times more likely to back independence than those who are happy to be outside the EU."