Could winter fuel cut cost Labour power at Holyrood?

Could Sir Keir Starmer's government's cut to winter fuel payments scupper Scottish Labour's chances of winning power at Holyrood?

That's certainly the hope of the SNP whose nine MPs voted in the Commons earlier this week against the scrapping of the universal benefit which since 1997 has seen older people get an allowance of up to £300 annually to help heat their homes in the coldest months.

Stephen Flynn and his colleagues at Westminster have been putting pressure on the new contingent of Labour MPs to defy their party's leadership and help reverse the decision to means test the benefit.

There is no doubt Mr Flynn will continue to remind voters of the cut ahead of the Holyrood election – whether that is next year if the Scottish Government can't get its budget passed or May 2026 as scheduled.

The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) believes that almost 10 million people in England and Wales will no longer receive the benefit while in Scotland around 900,000 will lose out.

Those are huge numbers of people directly affected. Many others will be indirectly impacted as they see how the loss of the benefit hits their elderly relatives.

It is an issue on a big scale, and an emotive one.

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One of the most compelling speeches in Tuesday's debate was when the Tory MP Caroline Johnson, also a consultant paediatrician, warned a hushed chamber that elderly people would die as a result of the policy as she set out in detail the effect of cold on the human body.

And there is the particular Scottish angle too.

As both SNP and Tory MPs argued on Tuesday, Scotland's winters tend to be colder than those elsewhere in the UK.

Their argument appeared to suggest that not only is the policy anti-pensioner but also anti-Scottish.

Andrew Bowie, Scottish Conservative MP for West Aberdeenshire and Kincairdine, along with Dave Doogan, the SNP for Angus and Perthshire Glens, and Pete Wishart, the SNP for Perth and Kinross-shire, were among those who reminded the Commons just how cold Scotland can get in winter.

In the end, Labour wasn’t defeated and means testing will indeed be introduced this winter. A total of 35 Scottish Labour MPs out of 37 voted not to reverse Sir Keir's plan. Two of the party's MPs, Euan Stainbank and Kenneth Stevenson, did not vote.

But will Labour’s actions give the SNP a boost?

Labour has argued that the winter heating payment is now devolved to Scotland with the decision to means test or not a matter for the Scottish Government.

Expect this argument to be repeated as the election approaches. But to date, the First Minister John Swinney's position – repeated at First Minister's Questions today – that the UK Government's announcement left the Scottish Government with 'no choice' but to means test due to a funding cut of £160m has found broad sympathy.

And what of Labour's position in Holyrood this week? Has the party been consistent with the move away from universal benefits pursued by the new government in Westminster? Seemingly not.

While Labour MPs were backing plans to end universal heating allowances their colleagues in Holyrood were decrying the SNP for not pushing ahead with free school meals for all P6 and P7 pupils.

James Mitchell, professor of public policy at Edinburgh University, said Labour must be cautious.

"Scottish Labour has to be careful not to appear too opportunistic and oppositional in reaction to SNP policy failures. While it is understandable that Labour would seek to highlight the SNP’s broken promises, Labour will inherit very difficult challenges if and when it takes office in Holyrood in two years. 

"There is always a balance to be struck for an opposition party between attacking the incumbent government and considering what would be done if it was in power," he told Unspun, adding that Labour must avoid treading the same path as the SNP in potentially over promising and under delivering.

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So will the winter payments cut make a difference to which party wins power at Holyrood at the next election?

"On balance Labour does risk losing votes," said Andy Maciver, director of the communications consultancy Message Matters.

"But May 2026 is a quite a long way away, the controversy may have been forgotten to some degree and voters are weighing up a whole range of issues, not just this one."

It will be interesting to see, in the wake of the winter fuel payment cut, what the next set of polling figures for the Holyrood election will be.

In the last opinion poll, published earlier this month, the SNP and Labour were extremely close – with the former just one seat ahead – 41 to Labour’s 40.

It's a position that suggests Labour is not in a position to make too many missteps.