This article appears as part of the Unspun: Scottish Politics newsletter.

Stephen Flynn has asked the 37 Scottish Labour MPs to rebel tomorrow when the Commons votes on the cut to the winter fuel payment.

It’s worth a punt, but it’s not going to happen.

In the same way, no SNP MSP is going to rebel when Holyrood votes on reversing the Scottish Government’s U-turn on free school meals on Wednesday.

To be fair, there is a slight difference in that Tuesday’s vote is a Tory motion on the regulations which would, if passed, stop the annual cash handout to pensioners changing from a universal benefit to a targeted benefit.

The Scottish Parliament vote is an opposition day motion which, if passed, will have absolutely no legislative or regulatory change.

The other difference? Labour has no chance of being defeated on Tuesday, while the SNP could potentially lose on Wednesday.

What both have in common is that any Labour MP or SNP MSP defying the whip will almost certainly have it taken off them.

The change to the free school meals – rolling back on the promise to give them to all P6s and P7s by 2026 – was part of the Programme for Government.

Although the vote is, in one sense, meaningless, it would surely be seen as a confidence vote in John Swinney’s legislative agenda for the year ahead. You can’t vote against that and expect to remain in the party.

Read more:

Unspun | Holyrood Budget Bill battle: Could the SNP government be on the brink of collapse?

And yesterday, Sir Keir Starmer refused to rule out punishing those MPs who defy him on Tuesday.

Asked by the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg if he would remove the whip from rebels, as he did when seven Labour MPs backed an SNP amendment on the two-child benefit cap, the Prime Minister answered: “That will be a matter for the chief whip.

“We’re going into a vote. I’m glad we’re having a vote, because I think it’s very important for parliament to speak on this. But every Labour MP was elected in on the same mandate as I was, which was to deliver the change that we need for the country.”

The Prime Minister referred the matter to the chief whip when asked if he would remove the whip from rebelling MPs (Image: BBC)
According to reports, dozens of unhappy Labour backbenchers are considering abstaining or being absent, allowing them to rebel without actually rebelling.  

“I’d expect the vast majority of anyone who does rebel to abstain, and remain inside the tent,” one told the Guardian. “Abstention is the new rebellion. It’s a question of defining what dissent is, and it’s probably better to do this than to jump off a cliff.”

There is some irony in the SNP attacking Labour for ditching universalism because of the state of the public finances at the same time as the Scottish Government ditch universalism because of the public finances.

That irony is presumably not lost on Anas Sarwar and his top team who have, as far as I can see, said next to zilch on the school meal policy drop.

That’s despite it being a key pledge in their 2021 manifesto.

There was the briefest of mentions during last week’s debate when Michael Marra said it was “a result of the Scottish Government’s budget and its mishandling of the finances”.

However, John Swinney gets to argue that this isn't his fault. This is down to Labour and the “persistence of the austerity climate that we thought we had seen the back of with the Conservatives,” as he told MSPs last Thursday.

Sir Keir Starmer gets to blame other people too. The winter fuel payment cut – which will save around £1.5bn – is necessary to tackle the £22bn black hole he says was left by the last government.

There is, of course, one big difference, the SNP is not doing something. Labour is taking something away.

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Currently, all P1s to P5s get free school meals. The plan was to expand that by 2026. The Scottish Government say they still want to do that, but, given their own black hole – roughly £1bn – it’s hard to see it happening any time soon.

Labour’s change on winter fuel payments will see millions lose out.

According to DWP statistics, 11.4m pensioners in Great Britain received the payout last year, with 991,431 of those in Scotland.

Given that 133,106 people in Scotland were in receipt of Pension Credit or other means-tested benefits in November 2023, that means roughly 858,000 people to lose out.

Both Swinney and Starmer have talked of tough choices. Politics is tough. And given the state of the finances, it's only going to get tougher.