Average house prices in Scotland rose by £5,366 between July 2023 and June this year, analysis published yesterday by estate agent DJ Alexander reveals.
Meanwhile, a separate survey published yesterday by mortgage lender Halifax shows UK house prices grew in August at their fastest year-on-year pace since November 2022. They rose by 0.3% month-on-month in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, following a 0.9% increase in July. The year-on-year pace of increase in August accelerated to 4.3%.
Halifax said the typical UK property now costs £292,505, compared with £291,585 in July and the highest since August 2022.
DJ Alexander, analysing the Scottish picture from the latest official UK data, said that between July 2023 and June 2024 average house prices in Scotland increased from £187,122 to £192,488.
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In England and Wales, average house prices rose by £4,707 over the same period, it calculated.
It cited “substantial variations” across Scotland in average house price movements over the year to June.
DJ Alexander, which describes itself as the largest lettings and estate agency in Scotland, said Midlothian recorded the highest increase in average house prices over the year to June, a rise of £17,724 to £241,773.
In Edinburgh, there was a rise of £14,315 to £333,561, with Stirling seeing an increase of £13,927 to £251,544, West Lothian posting an advance of £11,276 to £217,917, and North Lanarkshire an appreciation of £10,506 to £145,855. Average house prices in Highland increased by £10,195 to £208,773.
Among other areas which saw substantial increases was East Renfrewshire, where average house prices rose from £284,528 to £291,994.
There were four areas which experienced falls in average house prices in the year to June, DJ Alexander observed.
It noted the largest drop was in Perth and Kinross, where average house prices dropped by £4,334 to £234,239. In Argyll and Bute, there was a fall of £3,862 to £183,496, with a drop of £1,794 to £134,554 in Aberdeen and a decline of £602 to £160,709 in Dumfries and Galloway.
David Alexander, chief executive officer of DJ Alexander Scotland, said: “The Scottish housing market continues to be remarkably resilient.”
He noted the £5,366 increase “equates to a 2.9% rise over the year at a time when interest rates remain high and there remains continued concern over the performance of the economy.”
Mr Alexander declared that “in England and Wales, the percentage increase is almost half that figure at 1.6%”.
He said: “Other data shows that sales volumes in Scotland between May 2023 and April 2024, the latest period for which there are statistics, are almost static, starting at 7,671 and ending the year with a fall of just 25 to reach 7,646. Whereas in England and Wales sales volumes have plummeted, dropping 22,120 from 45,476 to 23,356.”
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Mr Alexander flagged as “even more astonishing the fact that, while almost every part of Scotland recorded an increase in average prices, six areas had rises of over £10,000 during the 12-month period”.
He said: “Our major cities and their surrounding areas continue to be popular, with high demand resulting in rising prices. People are still drawn to live and work in or near Edinburgh, Glasgow and the central belt in general. The price fallers are once again in rural areas such as Argyll and Bute, Dumfries and Galloway, and Perth and Kinross, with Aberdeen the notable exception due to its high backlog of properties for sale.”
He added: “Despite the naysayers and the doom-mongers, the Scottish market continues to be strong and outperform the rest of the UK. With interest rates likely to fall in the coming months, employment remaining high, and the anticipation of higher economic growth I believe these increases in Scottish house prices are likely to continue in the coming year.”
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Commenting on the UK picture from Halifax’s house price index survey, the EY ITEM Club said the second successive monthly increase “suggests that house prices are in the early stages of a recovery”.
The think tank added: “The EY ITEM Club attributes the upturn to mortgage affordability improving due to lower quoted mortgage rates and strong nominal wage growth.”
However, it declared that it “expects house price growth to remain in the slow lane over the next couple of years, with transactions staying relatively low”.
The EY ITEM Club added: “Though mortgage affordability is better than it was last summer, it remains very stretched. Other affordability metrics also remain high, which will continue to limit the pool of potential buyers.”
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