'SNP battening down the hatches as Holyrood defeat looms'

Last weekend, following the SNP's three day annual conference in Edinburgh one commentator suggested Mr Swinney may only continue for a further "three or four months" as SNP leader.

Party veteran Alex Neil said in July the party should consider replacing Mr Swinney - who was too associated with former First Minister Nicola Sturgeon's time in office - with a new leader such as Deputy First Minister Kate Forbes or Westminster leader Stephen Flynn in the wake of the SNP's devastating general election when it was left with nine MPs after winning 48 in 2019.

READ MORE: 

• 'Too close to Sturgeon': John Swinney faces calls to resign
• Ex SNP MP breaks rank to call for leadership change
• SNP conference: Why members are upbeat despite election loss

Ms Sturgeon's husband Peter Murrell, the former SNP chief executive, was charged in April this year in connection with the embezzlement of funds from the SNP.

Ms Sturgeon was arrested in June last year when she voluntarily arranged with Police Scotland to be questioned as part of the investigation, a spokesperson said at the time. She was released without charge seven hours later pending further inquiries.

But James Mitchell, professor of public policy at Edinburgh University, told The Herald there was no mood in the party for him to be replaced before the Holyrood election.

Professor James Mitchell (Image: Stewart Attwood)

"I doubt that John Swinney will stand aside or that pressure will build for him to do so. A few voices that had long warned of impending disaster are now seen as disloyal rather than as having foresight.  That’s the easy response from a party in denial," he said.

"The SNP’s activists now know that the party is in deep trouble and more than likely heading for defeat in 2026. They know John Swinney is implicated in the SNP’s current mess either by commission as Sturgeon’s Deputy First Minister at the heart of a failing government or omission by his failure to show any curiosity regarding the SNP’s deceitful claims on membership and lack of financial transparency.  

"They knew this when he put himself forward as a candidate to lead the party but also know that removing him would only add to disorder and uncertainty."

He added: "Swinney’s unspoken but obvious task is to try to steer the SNP through the next couple of turbulent years and try to limit the coming damage. 

Former SNP health secretary Alex Neil (Image: Gordon Terris)

"There are, of course, some who refuse to see the obvious difficulties ahead but while scale of losses in July’s general election came as a shock - though it should not have to anyone with any understanding of Scottish politics - SNP activists had braced themselves for a bad result. 

"Its recent conference confirmed the impression that the party is simply battening down the hatches for the coming storm and however implicated the ship’s captain undoubtedly is they do not see this as a time for mutiny.  The reality is the SNP does not know what to do so are sticking with John Swinney. The other side of the Holyrood elections is another matter of course."

The next Holyrood election is not due until May 2026 but with some doubt over whether the SNP - which governs as a minority party - will be able to get its budget supported in the Scottish Parliament, it is possible the vote may have to be called earlier.

"The parliamentary arithmetic is difficult for the SNP," said Professor Mitchell.

"If it can’t get a budget through then we are facing an early election.  Scottish Labour, Liberal Democrats and Greens would likely welcome that though none is as ready for one so soon but more ready than the SNP. 

"The SNP and Tories would want to avoid an election any time soon as both would face losses and neither is in a fit state to face the electorate.  John Swinney would likely want to avoid becoming a Scottish Rishi Sunak - going for broke with the very high risk involved."

Professor Mitchell said the Scottish Conservatives could abstain or seek some concessions in return for support allowing the budget to pass - though he added that "Labour and the Greens would make maximum political out of such an alliance".

He said: "One obvious concession would be to demand that the SNP formally and explicitly abandons the commitment to an independence referendum any time soon - that has after all effectively been abandoned anyway.

"Given the SNP’s distancing itself increasingly from the Sturgeon/Greens agenda there are other matters that the SNP might offer to entice Tory support.

"There would, of course, be a heavy political price to be paid for Tory support for an SNP budget. Labour and the Greens would make maximum political out of such an alliance."

Despite the SNP's general election drubbing, the mood among activists at last weekend's conference was upbeat with delegates pleased to have a chance to say what they thought went wrong at the election in an internal session on the opening day. Many were confident their party can still win the Holyrood vote and be returned to power for a record fifth term.

Their expectation of victory could be influenced by a poll the previous weekend for The Sunday Times that put the SNP narrowly winning the most seats at Holyrood, with 41 to Labour’s 40. 

Former SNP MP Joanna Cherry suggested the party was in denial - a claim rebutted by Mr Swinney.

An SNP spokesperson: "Under John Swinney’s leadership, the SNP is getting back to doing what it is does best – standing up for the people of Scotland. 

"Despite the financial challenges facing Scotland as a result of Labour’s decision to continue Tory austerity, this week the First Minister announced the actions the SNP will take to deliver real change and improve people’s lives.

“The SNP is proud to be the only party offering an alternative to Westminster misery and hope for a better future where decisions about Scotland, are taken in Scotland for Scotland."