A ‘perfect storm’ which has engulfed the hospitality industry was cited by the owner of long-established Glasgow bar Metropolitan when he announced on Tuesday that the Candleriggs venue had closed permanently after more than 20 years of trading.

Kevin Maguire, a prominent figure on the Glasgow scene for many years, declared it was “heart-breaking that so many negative factors have come about at the same time”, which meant it was no longer viable for the outlet on Merchant Square to stay open.

Increasing and unsustainable rent, rates and energy costs, the ongoing cost of living crisis, and the fall-out from the pandemic were highlighted in the statement from Mr Maguire’s Linn Investments, which confirmed the closure would lead to the loss of 40 jobs.

The challenges underlined by the company are all too familiar for Scottish hospitality operators, who have been engaged in a battle for survival ever since the coronavirus pandemic broke out in early 2020.

READ MORE: Shares surge in Scots tech star amid bright outlook in US

Now there is the prospect of a further, potentially severe headwind on the horizon.

It emerged recently that Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer was considering extending the indoor smoking ban to outdoor spaces, including pub gardens and outside restaurants, in England, putting the new Labour Government on a potential collision course with the hospitality industry.

Reports have suggested that the proposal would be attached to the tobacco and vapes bill, conceived by former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservative government. The bill ultimately seeks to create the first-ever smoke-free generation, through measures such as making it an offence to sell tobacco products to those born on or after January 1, 2009.

Since those initial reports, Scotland’s First Minister, John Swinney, has said he is “willing to engage” with the Prime Minister over the proposal, which is perhaps unsurprising, given Scotland was the first nation in the UK to introduce an indoor smoking ban in 2006.

READ MORE: 'We have managed to transform STV over the last few years'

Given the extent of the strain tobacco use exerts on individuals and the NHS, not to mention the increasing concern over the number of children across the UK now vaping, it is understandable that Sir Keir is minded to extend the restrictions on where people can smoke. According to the UK Government, 80,000 people in the UK die every year because of tobacco, which it said was the major cause of ill health, including cancer, stroke, heart failure, and disability.

At the same time, it is equally understandable to hear how concerned the hospitality industry is over the proposals.

After several punishing years, with the travails of the pandemic followed by a protracted inflation crisis which has hammered both business and consumers, operators could be forgiven for thinking that the last thing they need is to enforce more legislation. Especially the kind that could lead to people visiting hospitality premises less often.

Trading is under severe pressure within the hospitality industry as it is. A survey of summer trading published by the Scottish Licensed Trade Association (SLTA) last week found trading in August was down for 62% of businesses, compared with the same month last year, with Scotland's appearance at the Euro 2024 football championships failing to lift the gloom hanging over the industry.

READ MORE: Euros fail to lift gloom above Scottish licensed trade

The survey, of more than 400 pubs, bars, restaurants and hotels, found patrons are being more selective, with 19% leaving earlier and 16% only attending for events. Some 64% of respondents said customers were spending less, not visiting as often, and staying for shorter periods.

The SLTA has been running the survey for nearly 10 years. Managing director Colin Wilkinson said: “Our survey has now become a barometer which measures the pulse of Scotland’s hospitality sector.

“Over that time, we have seen the impact of Brexit, Covid, and right now our biggest challenge is not only spiralling business operating costs but also the cost of living increases that are having an impact on the leisure pound.”

Now, should the smoking ban be extended outdoors, there is the prospect of the industry’s ability to attract its share of the leisure pound diminishing further. Trade body UKHospitality was quick to warn of the threat. “A ban on smoking in outdoor spaces comes with the prospect of serious economic harm to hospitality venues,” said its chief executive, Kate Nicholls. “You only have to look back to the significant pub closures we saw after the indoor smoking ban to see the potential impact it could have.

“This ban would not only affect pubs and nightclubs, but hotels, cafes and restaurants that have all invested significantly in good faith in outdoor spaces and continue to face financial challenges.

“The Government must embark on a full and detailed conversation with affected parties on the impact of such a ban before any legislation is laid. It must also assess whether such a ban would achieve its aims of meaningfully reducing smoking or simply relocate smoking elsewhere, such as in the home.”

READ MORE: 'Iconic' North Lanarkshire church and estate for sale

Those old enough to remember the introduction of the ban on smoking in indoor public places in Scotland nearly 20 years ago may recall how fractious the debate was before the proposal became law. Back then, there was genuine concern that the move would be existential for the licensed trade, and there were heated arguments over whether or not the ban constituted an attack on civil liberty.

With the passage of time, we can now see that the hospitality industry did adapt to the challenge posed by the restriction. Innovative solutions were devised to accommodate smokers in outdoor spaces and the ban, it is often argued, accelerated the transition of the industry into a more food-led model. However, many pubs closed in its wake and the rate of closure remains high, though whether this is purely down to the smoking ban is far from clear.

It is certainly difficult to imagine that many people would wish to see a return to the pre-ban world and in any case such a move would simply not happen, such is the progress which has been made in lowering the number of people who smoke.

The prospect of the ban being extended in England, let alone Scotland, is still a remote prospect, but one can easily see it happening. The state of the public finances means government ministers will leave no stone unturned in their quest to find savings, and it seems they have identified cutting the number of people who smoke as a means of reducing the burden on the NHS.

It may not be palatable to the hospitality trade, especially when times are so tough, and it is hard not to sympathise with its concerns. But, as the experience of the indoor smoking ban nearly two decades ago has shown, the industry can rise to the challenge.

Whether or not every business will survive is another matter.