Most support net zero – so why is change so difficult?

When John Swinney announces his Programme for Government tomorrow he is widely expected to focus on delivering on the Scottish public’s key concerns. Mr Swinney set out his four priorities of ‘people, prosperity, public services and the planet’ in his speech to the SNP conference over the weekend.

The last-mentioned priority of ‘the planet’ – in other words, taking action to tackle climate change and its impacts – is certainly important to the Scottish public. Climate change and the environment consistently rank among the top 10 issues that the public see facing Scotland. That concern is reflected in widespread public support for policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Newly released research from Ipsos and the Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations (CAST) finds that providing support for home energy efficiency improvements is the top net zero policy priority for the public. Around 7 in 10 support this policy, both north and south of the border. That support may be unsurprising, as this policy involves providing help to people to make changes rather than requiring them to give anything up. But policies that are more ‘stick’ than ‘carrot’ – such as phasing out the sale of gas and coal boilers – are also supported by more of the public than oppose them.

Read more:

Unspun | Analysis: John Swinney faces own ‘watershed’ week as he seeks change amid cuts

Despite this widespread support for net zero policies, there are signs that public concern about climate change – although high – has been falling back slightly. The latest polling from Ipsos and CAST shows that although 77% of the UK public still say they’re worried about climate change, public concern about this issue fell by five percentage points between 2022 and 2024. More immediate issues such as the NHS, economy and cost of living are typically higher priorities for the public. In contrast, climate change can often still be seen as more of a future concern.

Support for net zero policies also looks more fragile than it did two years ago. Public support for phasing out the sale of gas and coal boilers, for example, fell by 14 percentage points between 2022 and 2024, although more still support this policy than oppose it. This fall may well relate to the impact of the cost-of-living crisis, as well as to more immediate concerns such as deteriorating public services shifting the public’s priorities away from climate and the environment.

This is important, since public support matters when it comes to government’s ability to deliver on its net zero commitments. Taking home heating as an example, carbon emissions from how people heat their homes will need to be reduced as much as possible by 2045 for Scotland’s climate target to be met. In practice this means that most households across Scotland will need to change to a ‘clean’ heating system, such as a heat pump or a connection to a heat network. But making this happen is far from easy. Change is proving slow and the take-up of government grants and schemes has been low. Unless the scale and pace of activity step up considerably, this ambition is unlikely to be realised.

The public opinion evidence on this issue points to real challenges ahead for government, given competing priorities. But it also gives us three important pointers on how policies can be designed and communicated to people across Scotland most effectively.

First, the public need reassurance about the convenience of making changes. Support for home heating policies falls when the public consider the potential negative impacts, such as the disruption of having tradespeople come in to install insulation or needing to replace radiators so that an alternative heating system can be installed. Having appropriate support in place to encourage people to make changes, and communicating clearly and widely about what support is available, will be critical to bringing about change.

Sign up and get Scotland's top politics newsletter straight to your inbox.

Next, it’s worth emphasising the financial benefits of making changes first, and the climate benefits second. The cost of making changes to their homes is likely to matter even more to people this autumn and winter, with the impact on household energy bills of the increase in the energy price cap from October, and winter fuel payments being means-tested rather than provided to all pensioners. Providing support for home energy efficiency improvements is doubtless a popular policy because of its positive impacts for people’s pockets as well as the planet. The importance of addressing financial concerns holds true for other net zero policies too. If alternative heating systems can be shown to have cheaper running costs than a gas boiler, for example – despite the outlay being greater initially – that will make them more attractive options for the public.

Finally, messaging needs to be clear about what the options are, the personal impacts of these and how people can take them up. Home energy efficiency and heating can be confusing areas – it’s not always clear to people how they can make their homes more energy efficient, the language used can often be technical, and newer solutions, such as heat networks, are not yet widely known about by consumers. Providing viable, accessible alternatives for people and engaging openly with their concerns about cost will be key to success if the Scottish Government is to deliver on its net zero policy priorities.