Analysis: Swinney faces own ‘watershed’ week amid cuts

During his closing address to the SNP conference on Sunday John Swinney told delegates that last week was a "watershed" moment for the UK and Scotland.

The First Minister told the party faithful gathered for the three day event at the Edinburgh International Conference Centre that it would go down as "an era defining" time.

Mr Swinney was referring to Sir Keir Starmer's first major speech becoming PM, which he delivered in the Downing Street Rose Garden last Tuesday, when he admitted that the budget on October 30 would be "painful" and he would have to make "big asks" of the public in his administration’s first fiscal event.

"There’s a budget coming in October and it’s going to be painful," he said.

"We have no other choice, given the situation we’re in," he added, referring to what Labour has characterised as a £22bn "black hole" in the public finances left by the Conservatives. "Frankly, things will get worse before they get better," he said.

Mr Swinney was keen to pick up on the PM's words to highlight the dire financial context he and the Scottish Government are working under – in part perhaps to help divert the blame onto the UK Government for unpopular spending cuts his administration makes – and in part as a key element of the SNP's strategy to attack Labour, likening it to the Conservative Party, in a bid to diminish the threat it faces from Anas Sarwar and Scottish Labour in the run up to the Holyrood election in 2026.

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"Labour have announced not the end of Tory austerity – but an intensification of Tory austerity," the First Minister told the SNP conference.

"You might remember a moment during the election campaign when the Labour leader in Scotland said to me and to the people of Scotland: 'read my lips: no austerity under Labour'. Within weeks, the Chancellor stood up and announced £22bn of spending cuts.

"That is politics at its most cynical – and a total breach of trust with all those who supported Labour. This then has been a watershed week for the UK and for Scotland. I believe it will go down as an era-defining moment. A Labour Party that promised change is delivering more of the same. The same Tory debt rule. The same Tory cuts agenda.

"Labour hasn’t delivered change. Labour is delivering the same damaging austerity as the Tories."

Finance Secretary Shona Robison will unveil a swathe of cuts – reportedly reducing spending by £600m – on Tuesday afternoon while the following day the First Minister will set out his programme for government (PfG) explaining in detail the policies it will pursue in the run up to the next Holyrood election.

While we must wait until Wednesday to find out the full details of what will be in it, it would be expected that the policies announced will align with the four priorities he listed to MSPs back in May just after he became First Minister – eradicating child poverty, growing the economy, tackling the climate emergency and improving public services.

Some suggestions have already been given.

In his conference speech on Sunday, Mr Swinney gave a taste of policies that would be announced on Wednesday to tackle child poverty, grow the economy, attract investment and improve public services.

He set out plans for a new benefit to give "whole family support" to help low income households, told delegates, in a section of his speech on renewable energy, he wanted his ministers "out there getting investment, investment, investment in the future of Scotland" and said his government would "bring forward reforms to shift the balance of care to preventive and community-based support" in the NHS.

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Some of these words sound rather familiar and no doubt opposition parties will be pressing the government why such policies promising change and improvements are only being announced now while the SNP has been in government for 17 years.

The policies Mr Swinney sets out in his PfG on Wednesday will be crucial to how successful he is in delivering on his four big commitments of eradicating child poverty, growing the economy, tackling the climate emergency, and improving public services.

And how successful he is in doing that will help to determine whether the SNP secure a record fifth term in power come May 2026.

While it may well be that Sir Keir Starmer's warning last week over a 'painful budget' to come will prove "era defining", it is certainly the case that Mr Swinney faces his own watershed week as Holyrood returns from its summer recess on Tuesday.