John Swinney has been warned it would be “unwise” not to brace the SNP for Holyrood defeat ahead of his first party conference in charge in almost two decades.

The First Minister has launched an attack on the UK Government, arguing his government’s ability to serve Scotland would be “under threat” from potential UK Government cuts.

The argument is expected to be a key feature of the SNP conference which kicks off in Edinburgh from today.

Allan Faulds, who runs Ballot Box Scotland, told the Herald senior SNP figures would be looking to make a potential Holyrood defeat as “soft as possible”.

A recent Norstat poll for the Sunday Times suggested Anas Sarwar’s Scottish Labour Party was heading for power in the Scottish Parliament for the first time in almost 20 years.

While polling suggests the SNP would narrowly win the most seats at Holyrood, with 41 to Labour’s 40, pro-independence parties would not be able to form a majority government, clearing the path for Labour with the potential backing of the Tories and the Scottish Liberal Democrats.

But a “saving grace” for the SNP could come if Labour fail to deliver the ambitious change promised to voters at the general election, Mr Faulds said.

He said: "It doesn't look particularly good for them (the SNP) going into 2026.

"There is the very likelihood they will lose government.

"Current polling suggests the SNP will still win more seats than Labour, not by very many, we are talking a small handful.

"But the SNP plus the Greens wouldn't have a majority."

He added: "I think if there are people in the SNP who haven't at least began to have this honest discussion of 'look we've been in government a long time and voters want a bit of a change - how do we make that as soft as possible for us?'

"That would strike me as unwise."

Meanwhile, the First Minister has warned voters of the “profound consequences” for public services and living standards in Scotland after Prime Minister Keir Starmer warned on Tuesday of the tough financial decisions facing the UK.

Both the UK and the Scottish Governments have warned of tough financial decisions, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves announcing more than a £20 billion black hole in public finances.

In Scotland, Finance Secretary Shona Robison warned of “tough decisions” following public sector pay increases and uncertainty from UK Government funding.

Mr Swinney, who will lead his first conference as party leader since 2004 after replacing Humza Yousaf in May, said: “The Prime Minister’s speech on Tuesday has made clear that Scotland is facing years of austerity under Labour, which will have profound consequences for public services and living standards.

“Be in no doubt – our ability to serve the people of Scotland is under real threat by the sweeping spending cuts that the Labour Government are introducing – cuts that, only a few months ago, they were denying would take place.

“The SNP, and indeed Scotland as a whole, must come together to stand up against Labour’s cuts.

“My belief that Scotland will be better as an independent country has never been stronger – and I know that we will win our independence when we show the people of Scotland that the powers of independence are central to improving their living standards, their local services and their communities.

“Under my leadership, the SNP will work harder than ever for the country that we are so privileged to lead.

“What people in Scotland need right now is hope and ambition for a better future – and that is what the SNP will offer.”

Mr Faulds said the attack on Labour is expected. He said: “Some in the SNP are already beginning to argue and hope for that if a Labour government at a UK level isn’t showing the kind of change voters want to see as quickly as possible, that might be the kind of thing that from the SNP perspective they can use to draw back.

“The SNP are certainly hoping there is an opportunity there for the SNP not to do as well as people hope and they can then present themselves as an opposition to Labour.

Dame Jackie BaillieDame Jackie Baillie (Image: Newsquest)

“Labour’s challenge is to deliver as much change as they can to see that off.”

But hitting back at the SNP, Scottish Labour deputy leader Dame Jackie Baillie said: “The SNP is desperately scrambling to deflect blame for its own failures but it cannot hide from its dismal record.

“NHS waiting lists are at a record high, exam results are tumbling and public services across the board are facing brutal cuts, but the SNP has no answers.

“The SNP is tired, divided and mired in scandal – it cannot deliver for the people of Scotland.

“They are a party out of ideas and Scots are paying the price.

“While the SNP is busy making excuses Labour is at work renewing our country – setting up GB Energy, reforming the remit of the Low Pay Commission to boost pay, and prioritising economic growth.

“Scotland is crying out for change and only Scottish Labour can deliver it.”

While the Chancellor met with Mr Swinney during his visit to Scotland earlier this week, the UK and Scottish Government’s have been locked in a row over where the blame lies on the country’s finances.

During her visit, Ms Reeves said the Scottish Government were “as guilty” as the previous Tory government.  

Scottish Lib Dem leader Alex Cole-Hamilton said: "I feel a bit sorry for John Swinney. He seems incapable of levelling with his party that it is their own scandals, divisions and poor management of public services that have got them into this mess.”