Parents and teachers have again hit out at Glasgow City Council after a newly disclosed council document detailed the potential risks associated with plans to cut teacher numbers.

It comes after the same groups condemned the council's use of 'deceptive' tactics around the matter and called for an investigation.

The new material, released under Freedom of Information (FoI) laws, is a ‘Budget Savings Template” for the period 2024-2027, and was part of an email exchange between the council’s Director of Finance and the Director of Education.

The document lays out a series of explicit risks associated with proposals around cuts to teacher numbers, although this is presented under the heading ‘Education Service Reform’. It also notes a number of potential mitigation measures, provides information on the equalities impact of cuts, and suggests that natural turnover will not be enough to allow the council to meet its savings goal.

Identified risks include larger class sizes, more limited options for school pupils, a reduced ability to ‘close the attainment gap’, less successful outcomes for young people, and a decline in support for staff from headteachers and deputes.

The document also explains that the cuts will mean a reduction in support for probationer and early-career teachers, something which could lead to less effective teaching in schools due to “impacting on skill level in Glasgow.” This is reinforced by the noted risk of a “reduction in the quality of learning and teaching and learner experiences” in the city.

Specific concerns are also raised about the impact on vulnerable pupils and those with additional support needs. Council officials advised that the cuts programme could lead to “reduced quality of support for children and young people with additional support needs” and “reduced oversight of children at risk due to reduced management capacity.” The prospect of more pupils being suspended from school or removed from mainstream education is also explicitly highlighted.

Under the heading ‘Mitigations’, officials list possible approaches the minimise the impact of the risks they have identified. These include altering the support available to new teachers so that it focuses on “core professional practice issues”, renegotiating with the Scottish government around probationer allocations, concentrating “remaining support” on helping the most vulnerable, and seeking more options for pupils through “improved partnership working”.

The final mitigation is: “Learning and Teaching strategy and what remains of Glasgow Improvement challenge to build capacity and develop sustainable approaches to improvement.”

Officials also raise the possibility of “increased direction of PEF”. This is a reference to Pupil Equity Funding, which is provided to schools on the basis of pupil poverty levels and which the government says should be “allocated directly to schools.”

In a section of the document titled ‘Equality Screening’, officials note that there are negative risks related to “Human Rights article 14” as there will be “more limited support for children with additional support needs and disabilities.” In an Equality Impact Assessment published on the council website this month, officials claimed that they had identified “no significant impact” on pupils with disabilities.

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There are also “risks of negative socio-economic impact”, including a “detrimental impact on schools’ ability to deliver nurture across the City.” It is also noted that as the overwhelming majority of the education workforce is female, women are likely to be disproportionately affected by cuts.

This section of the document also explicitly warns about the implications under the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child (UNCRC), which was recently incorporated into Scots Law. Officials note that Article 29 of the UNCRC “indicates that Education must develop every child’s personality, talents and abilities to their full potential.” The council’s current assessment of the impact of teacher cuts is that those from deprived backgrounds “are more likely to require targeted interventions to ensure they reach their potential”, but that “such targeted interventions may be more limited” as teachers numbers are lowered.

The budget document also notes, in a section titled ‘Personnel Implications’, that the council is “very likely” to need to look at early retirement and voluntary severance schemes to achieve the savings required. A previous version of this document stated that “turnover within the primary and secondary estate would not be able to manage this level of attrition” but this sentence has been removed in the updated version sent by the Director of Finance.

Leanne McGuire, chair of the Glasgow City Parents Group, said:

“We have been tirelessly campaigning against these reckless cuts for the past six months because we saw the writing on the wall, even when Glasgow City Council chose to ignore it. The newly revealed risks confirm our worst fears - risks that GCC pretended weren’t real, but now it's clear they knew all along.

“Larger class sizes, less support for new teachers, and a reduced ability to close the attainment gap will hit our most vulnerable children the hardest. The cuts will lead to fewer qualifications, diminished success for pupils, and a decline in the overall quality of education in Glasgow.

“Worryingly, we're already receiving messages from concerned parents telling us their children 'don't feel safe' and that their classrooms feel 'chaotic' due to the reduced staffing and resources. This is just the beginning of the disastrous consequences we warned about.

“The Council’s so-called 'mitigations' are nothing more than hollow promises, offering little more than a desperate scramble to plug gaps they themselves have created.

“We warned this would happen, and now our children and young people are set to pay the price for GCC's negligence."

A spokesperson for the EIS teaching union’s Glasgow branch said the newly-released document reveals “the depth of knowledge that Glasgow City Council had about the damaging impact of its planned cuts on schools, education and young people across the city.”

“It is clear that a primary goal of the council was to present these cuts in such a way that the depth of their impact would not become clear until after they were implemented. This raises further serious questions over the entire process, which runs counter to all principles of open and transparent governance of public resources.”

“Glasgow EIS has warned since February of the risks described in the Council’s budget plans. Central to our deep concerns around Education ‘reform’, aka cuts, is the critical impact on pupils with additional support needs and those living in socio economic deprivation. Inclusion and nurture support will be critically reduced and, in the context of the year-on-year erosion imposed on national education provision, life chances for our most vulnerable pupils will be devasted with a huge impact for years to come.

The spokesperson also said that the removal of 172 teaching posts from the city’s schools for the current year is “already being felt” and questioned the council’s ability to cut hundreds more posts without resorting to compulsory redundancies.

They also warned against restricting the support programme for new teachers who are still in training, and using them to “fill the many gaps left by axing permanent teaching posts.”

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A Scottish Government spokesperson said:

“The Scottish Government is committed to protecting teacher numbers, which is why we are offering over £145 million to local authorities for that purpose. Councils share our ambition to close the poverty-related attainment gap – that aim will not be supported by having few teachers in schools.

“Talks are continuing with COSLA to reach an agreement which ensures teacher numbers are protected. We would strongly encourage any council planning teacher cuts to reconsider.

“National guidance on Pupil Equity Funding is clear that headteachers should have full access to their school’s full allocated amount to ensure that they continue to be empowered to support children and young people impacted by poverty.”

A spokeswoman for Glasgow City Council said:

“Elected members make budget decisions not council officers.

“These are working documents that were subject to change before being finalised ahead of the budget.

“Indeed, some of the references were in relation to a previous saving target that was higher and then reduced.

“Teacher post reductions were discussed at length by all parties on budget day in February.

“There is no suggestion of compulsory redundancies and the reductions this year have been managed via natural turn over, primary staffing formulas and not filling temporary posts.”