Alex Salmond is set to return as an MSP to Holyrood in 2026 while Labour would form the next government under Anas Sarwar, according to a new poll.

In an unprecedented scenario, the SNP would narrowly win the most seats to become Scotland’s largest party. But it would fail to secure sufficient support to form a government. This would be the closest result since 2007, when Mr Salmond’s SNP defeated Labour, led by Jack McConnell, by one seat.

Unionist parties would almost certainly block the SNP’s route to Bute House, the First Minister’s official residence, with an informal alliance that would position Mr Sarwar as first minister of a minority administration.

It would mean that, for the first time since devolution, the biggest party at Holyrood might not form the government.

Former First Minister Mr Salmond, who now leads Alba, would make a dramatic return to the Scottish Parliament with his party winning four seats.

The survey also suggested that Nigel Farage’s Reform Party would win eight MSPs — mostly at the expense of the Scottish Conservatives whose representation would almost halve to 18.

The Norstat opinion poll for The Sunday Times is the first to be conducted since the general election, when SNP Westminster seats fell to Labour, whose representation in Scotland surged from one MP in 2019 to 37. The SNP recorded their worst result since 2010, returning nine MPs, down from 48.

Nigel Farage's Reform UK party could see eight MSPs elected in 2026, according to a new poll (Image: Joe Giddens)

According to analysis of the Nortstat survey by Sir John Curtice, the polling expert and professor of politics at Strathclyde University, the SNP would win the Holyrood election in 2026 with 41 seats, one more than Labour.

However, even the support of other pro-independence parties — 10 Greens and four Alba members — would be insufficient to enable John Swinney to remain as First Minister, because he would fall 10 votes short of a majority.

The probable scenario would be Mr Sarwar replacing Mr Swinney, with support from 18 Scottish Conservatives and eight Lib Dems — handing the Scottish Labour a majority of three in the Scottish parliament.

However, Professor Curtice warned that translating Labour’s general election success into seats at Holyrood “may well prove far from straightforward” because voters were more likely to vote SNP in Scottish parliament elections.

He also stressed that the proportional system “makes it much more difficult for Labour to win seats on the scale it did last month”. Labour may also face a trust issue, with Scottish voters more confident in the Scottish Government to handle key issues than Sir Keir Starmer’s administration at Westminster.

The only exception was the economy, where Labour ministers had a two-point lead over their nationalist counterparts. The SNP were six points ahead when it came to trust on managing the NHS and nine points ahead on social security. However, there were high levels of voters unconvinced by either administration.

The poll comes amid a challenging period for both governments. SNP ministers have been forced to impose emergency spending controls, failed to stabilise the worst drug death numbers in Europe and have stoked controversy with the reintroduction of peak-time rail fares — in effect doubling the daily cost to commuters.
 

Meanwhile, the UK Labour government is facing growing anger from within his party over plans to abolish winter fuel payments for millions of pensioners after the energy regulator announced that bills would rise by 10% this winter and failing to lift the two-child benefit cap.

The new poll reveals that Sir Keir is the least unpopular leader in Scotland with an overall rating of -5.  Mr Sarwar scored -8 and Mr Swinney -11. Douglas Ross, the outgoing Scottish Conservative leader, scored -50.

While 23% of Scots believe that John Swinney is doing a good job as First Minister, 34% believe he is doing a bad job, a net score of -11, down four on his rating shortly before the election. This means he is trailing Sir Keir Starmer, who is now on -5, up from -11 before polling day.

“Fending off Labour’s challenge will require strong and effective leadership from the SNP,” Professor Curtice said.

“The challenge that still faces Swinney is whether he can make more of a success of his party’s leadership than he managed when he first led the party in the early years of devolution.”

The Nortstat poll found that 33% f the electorate still planned to vote SNP in their local constituency, compared with 30% for Labour. The Tories’ plunging polling figures are reflected with only 12% backing them, while 9% said they would vote Reform; 8% Liberal Democrat; 5% Green; and others picking up 2%.

For the more proportional regional list vote, which ensures Holyrood is more representative, the SNP and Labour were tied on 28% with the Tories on 14%. Reform again polled 9%, the Greens, 8%; Lib Dems, 7%; and Alba, 5%.

Alba welcomed the poll and said voting for it on the regional list will be ‘crucial’ to return a pro independence majority.

General secretary Chris McEleny said: "Over the past three years we have spent our energy and resources campaigning for Scottish independence so that we can make an impact for independence at the next Scottish Parliament elections. 

"Today’s Sunday Times poll shows that votes for Alba Party on the regional list will be crucial to ensuring that a pro independence majority is returned to the Scottish Parliament." 

He added: "Independence must be an immediate and urgent priority for Scotland and we will continue to make that argument in the weeks and months to come. It is now clear that voting for Alba Party on the regional list will be crucial in delivering a pro independence majority to Holyrood at the next Scottish Parliament election. ”