This article appears as part of the Unspun: Scottish Politics newsletter.

I remember exactly where I was on January 6th, 2021.

The United States Congress had gathered to officially certify the victory of Joe Biden (a boring but reliable old politico) over then-President Donald Trump. What was meant to be a formality turned deadly as thousands of Trump’s supporters stormed the Capitol building in Washington DC. The citadel of American democracy had been invaded. Windows were shattered and offices looted as rioters attacked police officers with flagpoles, pepper spray, and baseball bats.

I watched the drama unfold thousands of miles away in Stonehaven, a delightful seaside town in the North East of Scotland, huddled around the television with my siblings.

We stayed up long into the night, glued to the screen. I finally went to bed around six in the morning, after the last set of election results had been confirmed. Democracy had prevailed. Surely accountability would follow.

Well… fast forward three and a half years. June 27th, 2024. The first presidential debate. Despite a series of criminal indictments, Donald Trump was selected as the presidential candidate for the Republican Party.

His sparring partner was once again Joe Biden, now 81 years old. Biden rasped through the debate, repeatedly losing his train of thought – when he wasn’t staring blankly into space. Watching the highlights of the debate the next morning, I felt incredibly bleak. Was this the best my country had to offer?

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A resurgent Trump rose to mythic status two weeks later when he was wounded in an attempted assassination attempt. Pumping his fist in the air as blood poured down his face, Trump projected defiance and strength. With the alternative being a much diminished Joe Biden, it seemed many were willing to forgive Trump for his litany of falsehoods, faux pas, and offensive comments.

The Democrats needed to find a substitute – and fast.

And so, just eight days after Trump was shot, Biden capitulated to growing pressure and announced he would not be standing after all. He threw his support behind Vice President Kamala Harris, who quickly secured the Democratic nomination, raising hundreds of millions of dollars along the way.

In less than a month, the race has flipped on its head. Trump is now the old man with acuity concerns, as Harris, two decades his junior, attacks his record (and alleged crimes) with precision and prosecutorial flourish. To add insult to injury, Trump has been panned over his choice for vice president, Ohio senator JD Vance.

Vance, 40, has faced criticism for off-kilter comments (slamming his political opponents as ‘childless cat ladies’) and odd attempts at humour (claiming that Democrats believe drinking Diet Mountain Dew – a popular fizzy drink in America – is racist).

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Yet, despite a recent surge in the polls, Harris remains the underdog. Even if she wins the popular vote, she will need to gain a majority in the electoral college, which has favoured Republican candidates in recent elections.

She will pin her hopes on securing the votes of young people and ethnic minorities in the ‘Sunbelt’ states; Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. She will also rely on VP pick (and prototypical ‘American Dad’) Tim Walz to retain traditional white working class voters in the ‘Blue Wall’ states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

Harris, the child of Indian and Jamaican immigrants, will attempt to be the first woman to become president of the United States. She has run on a message of embracing a progressive future, as crowds chant ‘we won’t go back’ at her rallies.

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Whether or not this message will resonate with voters remains to be seen. Attempts to restart the economy after COVID has led to inflation and high costs of living. Wars rage in Ukraine and Gaza, and America faces an uncertain future on the world stage.

Trump has attempted to paint Harris as a dangerous leftist in favour of open borders and government handouts. Yet, in typical Trumpian fashion, he has often deviated from this message. In recent weeks, he has questioned Harris’ racial identity, berated the Republican governor of Georgia (supposed to be an ally), and falsely claimed that Democrat rally crowds were AI-generated.

This week at the Democratic National Convention, Harris will be crowned as the first woman of colour to become a major party nominee for president. Already, scores of party denizens have sung her praises from the podium, including Joe Biden, who bid adieu to a political career spanning fifty years. Taking the stage, he wiped away tears as he addressed a crowd of 20,000 supporters, many of whom chanted “We love you, Joe”.

As an American living abroad, I often feel disconnected from the political discourse in the States. What stake do I have in my country, living thousands of miles and an ocean away? Yet, I still have a voice, and a vote which I intend to use. The stakes are just that high. Indeed, the ramifications of this election are immense, not just for America. On November 6th, Scotland will wake up to the news of a new president. Just who that person is will define the relationship between our two countries for years to come.

I, for one, will be staying up to catch that moment in history.