The publication of this year’s National 5, Higher, and Advanced Higher results has generated renewed concern about the attainment gap in Scotland.

Today’s results from the Scottish Qualifications Authority (SQA) made it clear that the gap between Scotland’s most and least disadvantaged pupils has once again widened in key metrics.

The results have raised questions about the suitability of Scotland’s Curriculum for Excellence (CfE), the role of the SQA in its twilight months before being replaced, and whether or not the Scottish Government's stated goal of closing the poverty-related attainment gap is a realistic target.

But the data published on Results Day is not the gold standard by which the Scottish Government measures the attainment gap. In fact, SQA exam results are not included in the 13 measurements the Scottish Government uses to analyse student performance and experiences from infancy through high school.

Although each of the 13 measures tells a slightly different story, and some have shown positive trends in recent years, they combine with the most recent SQA data to contribute to the same overall narrative: there remains a measurable attainment gap between Scotland’s richest and poorest students.

How do we measure “rich and poor”?

Most discussions of the attainment gap categorise students according to the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD). The Scottish Government defines the SIMD as a relative measure of deprivation across 6,976 small areas, known as data zones.

The SIMD is not just a measure of income, however, and viewing students as "rich" or "poor" only covers one aspect of the poverty-related attainment gap.

The SIMD combines seven factors to create a more complete picture of the resources and opportunities available in each area, including income, employment, education, health, access to services, crime and housing.

A student's SIMD categorisation is based on where they live.

For comparison, it is most common to divide the SIMD zones into quintiles and analyse how students in SIMD 1 (the 20% most deprived geographical areas) fare in relation to those from SIMD 5 (the 20% least deprived).

This is typically a feature of School League Tables, for example, and the categories used by the SQA and Scottish Government to measure the attainment gaps in exam performance and literacy and numeracy scores.

Measuring the attainment gap

The Scottish Government collects data on 13 metrics to measure the attainment gap. 

According to the government, there is insufficient data to measure the most up-to-date attainment gap in two categories:

  • Health and wellbeing: Children's total difficulties score (age 4-12)
  • Health and wellbeing: Children's total difficulties score (age 13 and 15)

Of the remaining 11, the gap between Scotland’s most and least deprived students has narrowed or held relatively steady in nine categories since 2016/17:

  • Percentage of children showing no concerns in their 27-30 month review: ​Gap of 11.7 percentage points in 2022/23 compared to 15.6 in 2016/17
  • Percentage of primary pupils (P1, P4, P7 combined) achieving the expected CfE literacy levels: Gap of 20.5 percentage points in 2022/23 compared to 22.1 in 2016/17
  • Percentage of primary pupils (P1, P4, P7 combined) achieving the expected CfE numeracy levels: Gap of 16.9 percentage points in 2022/23 compared to 17.6 in 2016/17
  • Percentage of S3 pupils achieving CfE third level or better in literacy: Gap of 13.7 percentage points in 2022/23 compared to 13.6 in 2016/17
  • Percentage of S3 pupils achieving CfE third level or better in numeracy: Gap of 13.7 percentage points in 2022/23 compared to 14.9 in 2016/17
  • Percentage of school leavers achieving at least one SCQF Level 4 qualification or better: Gap of 5.9 percentage points in 2022/23, the same as in 2016/17
  • Percentage of school leavers achieving at least one SCQF Level 6 qualification (again, for the most part, Highers) or better: Gap of 36.9 percentage points in 2022/23 compared to 37.6 in 2016/17
  • Percentage of 16-19 year-olds participating in education, employment or training: Gap of 8.3 percentage points in 2022/23 compared to 11.5 in 2016/17
  • Percentage of 16-19 year-olds in initial positive destinations: Gap of 4.4 percentage points in 2022/23 compared to 6.9 in 2016/17

The gap has grown in two other categories:

  • Percentage of school leavers achieving at least one SCQF Level 5 qualification (National 5, for the most part) or better: Gap of 20.2 percentage points in 2022/23 compared to 19.3 in 2016/17
  • Percentage of school attendance: Gap of 6.7 percentage points in 2022/23 compared to 4.7 in 2016/17

Despite shifting trends year-on-year, an attainment gap exists in each key measurement. Most categories have at least ten percentage points between the most and least deprived pupils.

Whose job is it to close the attainment gap?

Despite the focus on Tuesday’s SQA data, the published results are merely an indicator of the poverty-related attainment gap in Scotland and not the deciding factor.

As such, although the SQA results draw attention to the overall attainment gap, responsibility for closing it may lie elsewhere.

The SNP has made closing the poverty-related attainment gap a priority in successive governments, and former First Minister Nicola Sturgeon famously asked to be judged on her record on education shortly after taking office.

However, successive reports on attendance, literacy and numeracy and more metrics have shown that the gap between the most and least deprived students has fluctuated, but never come close to disappearing entirely. In fact, in many cases, it has barely moved at all.

In response to Tuesday's SQA results, the Scottish Government was asked about what steps it has taken to close the attainment gap, what the role of the SQA or any subsequent qualifications authority should be, and whether or not the mission to close the attainment gap has failed.

A Scottish Government spokesperson said:

“The Scottish Government has been consistently clear in its aim to close the poverty-related attainment gap, which is why we are investing £1 billion in the Scottish Attainment Challenge to enhance the level of support for disadvantaged pupils.

“Poverty-related attainment gaps for National 5 and Higher have returned to similar levels to those recorded pre-pandemic in 2019. We have also seen a record low attainment gap in primary pupils from the most and least deprived areas achieving expected levels in literacy, and reductions at secondary level supported by this investment.

“The latest data from UCAS also shows a record number of disadvantaged Scottish students receiving a place at university, while the poverty-related attainment gap in the proportion of school leavers in work, training or further study nine months after finishing school remains low.

“Ministers are acutely aware of the impact the pandemic has had on children and young people – particularly on those affected by poverty. We continue to work with local authorities to understand these issues in greater detail.