Professor Sir John Curtice has suggested that the Scottish Conservatives may need to reconsider their relationship with colleagues in Westminster if they aspire to be more than an "also-ran" in Holyrood. 

Speaking to The Herald on Sunday, the polling guru said the party was in a “dire position” and there was a “big question” over how much a new leader in the Scottish Parliament could do to “repair the situation.”

The contest to replace Douglas Ross will likely kick off this week when the ruling Scottish Tory Management Board meets on Wednesday to decide on the rules and timetable.

READ MORE: I'm a Tory MSP – my party needs a 'radical overhaul' to win

Around nine MSPs are considering a bid, including Meghan Gallagher, Jamie Greene, Liam Kerr, Stephen Kerr, Brian Whittle, Graham Simpson, Murdo Fraser and Maurice Golden.

So far, only Russell Findlay has confirmed a tilt at the top job. He is the favourite to win and has already garnered the support of senior figures in the central party.

Yesterday it emerged that the former investigative journalist had received a threat from a “known criminal” who wanted to prevent his promotion. 

The West Scotland MSP told the Scottish Daily Mail he had been contacted by Police Scotland about a potential threat to his life.

Mr Findlay told the paper the threat could be linked to the case of William Burns, who was convicted of attacking him with acid at his home in 2015.

Writing on X, Mr Findlay said: “I’m not going to let gangland threats stop me from running to lead the Scottish Conservative party.

“It is vitally important to be defiant and stand firm for what you believe in.”

There are now less than two years until the next Holyrood election. Polls put the Tories in a distant third.

The General Election was a disaster for the party with their vote in Scotland near enough halved, down 12.4 percentage points to 12.7%.

However, thanks to a terrible result for the SNP, they managed to win five seats, just one less than in 2019.

They would likely have won Aberdeenshire North and Moray East had it not been for Douglas Ross and the ousting of David Duguid.

The outgoing Scottish Tory leader upset some of his MSPs and activists after announcing his intention to run for Westminster, despite previously promising to commit his energies to being leader of the Tory group at the Scottish Parliament.

Mr Ross stood in the new Aberdeenshire North & Moray East constituency, replacing, Mr Duguid, who, at the last minute, was declared too ill to campaign by the Party’s Management Board.

(Image: PA)

There was unease among local members over the decision, particularly as Mr Duguid insisted repeatedly he was well enough to stand.

The row ultimately triggered his resignation.

READ MORE: Douglas Ross apologises for Tory campaign chaos

Mr Findlay has said he wants “to lead a new conservative movement on a mission to earn the right to govern one day.”

Prof Curtice said the Tories would need a huge swing to be in with a chance of moving into St Andrew’s House, the Scottish Government HQ.

“Of course, being a party of government means not just winning seats but also being able to find partners who are willing to help sustain your minority administration or enter into a coalition," he said.

“One obvious potential problem for the Conservatives is whether they could find such partners.”

The psephologist said the party would need to be just over four points ahead of the SNP to become the largest party.

“That's a swing of 14.9% on the constituency vote and 10.4% on the regional vote.”

Herald columnist and former head of communications for the Scottish Tories, Andy MacIver said the party had no roadmap to power. 

“That's a pretty big problem to have. And it doesn't exist anywhere else in Europe.

“Even in countries that we generally see as being left wing, countries like the Scandinavians, for instance, they've all got a strong centre right party, and that centre right party is very often in government in all these countries, and we don't have that.

“So it's the only party in the parliament that has never been in government, and there's no roadmap to government because none of the other parties in a PR parliament are prepared to work with the Conservatives at all."

The Scottish party’s relationship with the UK party has been a key debate during the early stages of the leadership contest.

However, there is seemingly little appetite among the possible candidates for a split.

Mr Fraser previously suggested breaking away when he ran in the leadership contest against Ruth Davidson in 2011.

Last week, speaking to the Holyrood Sources podcast, he suggested he now favoured a Canadian-style model in which a separate party would sit in Holyrood, but the Tories would still contest UK elections in Scotland.

"So the UK Conservative party, under the Canadian model, would still fight elections in Scotland, but it just wouldn't fight elections to Holyrood," he said.

Meanwhile, in an intervention earlier this week, Ms Davidson said breaking up the party was a “short route to electoral suicide.”

"Splitting apart will alienate many members, activists and supporters. You're either a Conservative and Unionist or you're not, and I know where I stand on that. A split party is still a split party, however you slice it.”

READ MORE: Conservative leadership candidate Russell Findlay gets death threat

However, Prof Curtice said the party’s “main problem north of the border” was the fallout from Partygate and the Liz Truss fiscal event.

He added: “Between them, they badly damaged the Conservative's reputation for integrity and competence, both of which had a clear effect north of the border.

“The only big difference from down south is that the biggest flow of 2019 Conservative voters was to Labour rather than Reform.

“And all this has enabled Labour to reclaim the mantle as the principal party of unionism north of the border, while also having some success, unlike the Tories, in bridging the constitutional divide.

“So as in the early years of devolution, the party is now an also ran once more, albeit now with even fewer votes than then if not seats.

“The big question is how much, if anything, can the Scottish leadership do to repair the situation, as opposed simply to hope that their colleagues at Westminster turn things around from a dire position sooner rather than later.

“This clearly raises the question of whether the Scottish party should revisit loosening its ties with Westminster.”

Mr MacIver said there seemed to be an acceptance that some sort of change is required from all the potential runners.

“Even the continuity candidates are talking about change. Even Russell Findlay, who's seen as the favourite and seen as the primary continuity candidate and seen as the choice of HQ - all of which is correct, he is all those things - he is saying that we need to re-examine the relationship with the with the party in London.”

However, he thought it unlikely anyone would seek to properly debate the relationship between the parties during what he said was already proving to be a “fractious” contest.

“It's not very nice at the moment. Even if it's not the candidates themselves, there are a lot of outriders saying and doing things which are not particularly collegiate.

“And I don't think this party can actually cope with much of a debate at the moment, to be honest.

“It's in a very serious state and I think the candidates all know just how fragile and vulnerable this political party actually is, and I think for that reason they will probably shy away from an existential debate about whether or not the party should exist and whether there should be a new party and all that.”

He also said with just 18 months until the next election there simply was not the time to set up a new party.

READ MORE: Andy MacIver: New Scottish Tory leader’s job is to keep the corpse warm

The hunt for a new leader in the Scottish Parliament comes as nominations close in the contest to replace Rishi Sunak as UK leader.

MPs have until Monday to put themselves forward.

At the time of going to print, four have said they intend to run: former work and pensions secretary Mel Stride, former home secretary James Cleverly, former security minister Tom Tugendhat and former immigration minister Robert Jenrick.

Kemi Badenoch, the former business secretary, and Priti Patel, the former home secretary, are also likely to enter the contest.

There is speculation that Suella Braverman, the former home secretary, could also throw her hat into the ring.

There are some in the Scottish Tories who want their contest to mirror the UK contest and others who want a new leader before the Scottish Parliament returns at the start of September.

One source suggested the Management Board would not want the race “dragging till November.”

“More so that they’ve made their mind up about who they want,” he added. “Get it over and done with I suspect is their vision.”

The uncertainty over who will be the next leader of the opposition in Westminster could make it harder for any debate over the relationship between the Scottish and UK parties. 

“I think in the round it would be better for the Scottish Tory party if somebody like Tom Tugendhat won, rather than someone like Kemi Badenoch,” Mr MacIver said.

“Because ultimately, whoever wins this election, they're going to stand up at FMQs in the autumn, or whenever they become leader, and the first thing that's going to happen is John Swinney is going to talk about what's happening in London with whoever the Tory leader is.

“That's just how life works for the Scottish Tory leader. They're the first line of defence for the leader in London.

“Now they will find it easier to defend Tom Tugendhat than they will to defend Suella Braverman. So they will be hoping that that is the outcome.

“The problem that they've got is that the Tory party membership will almost certainly vote for the most right wing populist candidate they get offered.

“I think that the idea of being Tory Party leader at the moment in Scotland is appealing to a number of people. I think when they get in there and realise what life is actually like as the leader of the Scottish Conservative Party, it's not going to be a particularly fun 18 months."