Pupils from remote small towns are less likely to go to higher education than ever before, official statistics show.

Just under 25% of school leavers from such areas went on to higher education in 2022/23, while just over a third did so in 2009/10 - which is when the current data published by the Scottish Government begins. Leavers from remote small towns are now by far the least likely of all young people to enter higher education.

The Scottish Government’s ‘follow up leaver destinations’ publication, released last month, provides data on the activity of school leavers in the year 2022/23. Those involved in education, training, employment and voluntary work are classed as securing a ‘positive destination’.

Nationally, the positive destinations figure has remained above 90% since 2012/13, while the gap between the richest and poorest students has narrowed from 13.3 to 7.5 percentage points across the same period.

However, the data shows that school leavers’ chances of achieving positive destinations are also affected by their geographical location.

The Scottish Government uses an ‘Urban Rural Classification’ system which divides the country into six categories depending upon their size, location and connectivity: large urban, other urban, accessible small town, remote small town, accessible rural, and remote rural.

Remote small towns are “settlements of 3,000 to 9,999 people, and with a drive time of over 30 minutes to a settlement of 10,000 or more.” The council areas with the largest population percentages living in these locations are Orkney (33.5%), Argyll and Bute (30.4%), Shetland (29.6%) and Na h-Eileanan Siar (27.5%).

Urban-Rural Classification

  • Large Urban areas are settlements of 125,000 or more people (Aberdeen, Dundee, Edinburgh, Greater Glasgow, Motherwell and Wishaw)

  • Other Urban areas have a population between 10,000 and 124,999 (including Ayr, Dunfermline, Inverness, St Andrews, Stirling and Troon)

  • Accessible Small Towns have a population between 3,000 and 9,999, and are within a 30-minute drive of an urban area (including Auchinleck, Dunblane, Gretna, North Berwick, Shotts and Strathaven)

  • Remote Small Towns have the same population level as accessible small towns, but a more than 30-minute drive to the nearest urban area (including Campbeltown, Girvan, Kirkcudbright, Lerwick, Newton Stewart, Oban, Thurso and Wick)

  • Accessible Rural areas have a population below 3,000 and a 30-minute drive to an urban area (including Beauly, Dalmellington, Lochwinnoch, North Queensferry, Portpatrick and Torrance)

  • Remote Rural areas have a population below 3,000 and a more than 30-minute drive time to the nearest urban area (including Aberfoyle, Gairloch, Kinlochleven, Newtonmore, Pitlochry and Ullapool)

According to the most recent official data, just 24.2% of school leavers from remote small towns went on to higher education. This compares with a figure 41.1% for those in ‘large urban areas’ and 33.3% for young people from ‘remote rural areas.’ This does not necessarily mean that all went to university, because a significant proportion of Scottish higher education is in fact delivered by colleges.

Although all areas have seen a decline in leavers going to higher education since 2019/20, the drop for remote small towns is especially steep.

A closer analysis of the school leavers from remote small towns moving on to education or employment shows that the percentage entering college (further education) is also lower than historic levels, although it has increased since a clear dip in 2020/21. Between 2009/10 and 2019/20, between 23% and 24% of school leavers from remote small towns went in to further education, but this figure then fell to just 16.1% in 2020/21. Although this figure has since risen slightly, it still has not returned to previous levels.

In contrast, the numbers entering employment after school have risen from a pre-pandemic high of 33.9% to the most recent figure of 45.5%. However, the Scottish Government has long been criticised for including forms of employment such as zero hours contracts in the positive destinations statistics, and no breakdowns are available to show the type of employment that has driven the increased levels in remote small towns.

Educational disadvantages for those from remote small towns are also observable in other data sources. In December 2023, The Herald reported that students living in these areas have recorded lower attainment levels in literacy and numeracy since current data collection methods began in 2016/17.

Just 65% of primary school pupils from remote small towns met the expected levels in literacy, and 73% did so for numeracy. In both cases, this is around ten percentage points lower than pupils from 'accessible rural areas', who are the top performers.

Although the gaps are narrower for S3 literacy and numeracy, pupils from remote small towns are still the least likely to achieve the expected levels at this stage.

A Scottish Government spokesperson said: “Widening access to higher education is a priority for the Scottish Government, including for those who live in rural areas. As part of this commitment, we are considering possible measures to ensure those in rural communities have equal access to universities.

“Ministers will continue to engage with COSLA on these statistics and any variation across the country, recognising their responsibilities for the statutory delivery of education locally, and with our colleges and wider partners.

“The dataset used to compile the destination statistics does not include the contractual status of employed young people. While responsibility for employment law lies with the UK Government, the Scottish Government is firmly opposed to the inappropriate use of zero-hours contracts and other non-standard types of employment that offer workers minimal job or financial security. We therefore look forward to hearing more from the UK Government on their proposed legislation in the King’s speech to ban exploitative practices and update employment rights.”