Poll: Quarter of Scots seats are on a knife edge

The Survation poll also shows growing support for Nigel Farage’s Reform who are now polling ahead of the Lib Dems.

READ MORE: Ballot Box Scotland: What our poll reveals about next week's election

When asked how they would vote at the general election, 37% of Scottish voters said Labour, up one point from last month.

The SNP are down one on 31%. Meanwhile, the Tories are at 14%, Reform is on 8%, the Lib Dems are on 7% and the Scottish Greens on 3%.

(Image: Ballot Box Scotland)

Modelling by Allan Faulds from Ballot Box Scotland estimates this would give Anas Sarwar 31 MPs, up massively on the two his party won in 2019.

The SNP would win 17 seats, a drop of 31 compared to the last general election.

The Lib Dems would add to their tally, winning five while the Tories would be on four, down two.

Writing in The Herald, Mr Faulds says: "The changes versus the previous poll are modest and largely within margin of error for the Westminster ballot, which fits the recent trend of Labour and the SNP plateauing.

"John Swinney will perhaps breathe a sigh of relief that his party’s decline has seemingly stalled.

"Yet there’s no denying the SNP are a much-weakened party, whilst Anas Sarwar will be rightly jubilant at the near-certainty he’ll see Scottish Labour’s first victory since 2010."

His analysis suggests there are 15 seats that could go a different way with a swing of just 2% or less.

The battle for Aberdeenshire North and Moray East is particularly tight.

Douglas Ross' selection as the Scottish Tory candidate was controversial.

The Party’s Management Board stopped former Scottish Office minister David Duguid from contesting the new seat as they claimed he was too ill - a claim the former MP disputed.

Mr Ross then announced his intention to “lead from the front” and stand instead, despite previously promising not to stand for Westminster and concentrate on Holyrood. 

The outcry led to him announcing his resignation as Scottish Tory leader. 

Mr Faulds says the seat is "on a knife edge, dependent on how attractive Reform UK is in Scotland’s most Pro-Brexit constituency and how dim a view voters take of his shock defenestration of David Duguid."

READ MORE: Exclusive poll: 75 per cent of Scots back House of Lords reform

The poll was carried out between 21 and 25 June, after the Scottish Greens, the SNP, Scottish Labour and the Scottish Lib Dems launched their manifestos.

The Scottish Tories published theirs on Monday, while Alba’s was released yesterday.

Voters were also asked who they would back at the next Holyrood election. There was little movement on the list compared to last month, with Labour at 34%, the SNP at 30% the Tories at 16%, the Lib Dems at 8%, the Greens on 7% and Alba on 2%.

On the constituency ballot, Labour was up 5 points at 37%, while the SNP remained on 33%.

The Tories were down three on 14%, while the Lib Dems were on 8%, the Greens on 4% and Alba on 4%.

(Image: Ballot Box Scotland)
When asked how they would vote if there was an independence referendum, 54% said no, while 46% said yes.

Scottish Labour Deputy Leader Jackie Baillie welcomed the poll. She told The Herald: “After 14 years of Tory turmoil and 17 years of SNP incompetence, Scotland is ready for change.

“We have a week to finally get rid of this disastrous Tory government and deliver the change that Scotland needs – but Labour is taking nothing for granted.

“Every vote for Scottish Labour is a vote to boost pay, cut bills, create jobs, renew public services and deliver economic growth.

“Scottish Labour will continue to work day in and day out to earn voters trust and make sure we can get the Tories out of government and deliver a Labour government with Scotland at its heart.”

Scottish Tory Chairman Craig Hoy warned his supporters against flirting with Reform. He said: "With a week to go, in key seats up and down Scotland the race is extremely tight between the Scottish Conservatives and the SNP.

"If voters unite behind the Scottish Conservatives, we can beat the SNP in these key seats and end their independence obsession for good.

"A vote for any other party - or not voting at all - risks letting a nationalist MP in by the back door who will ignore people's priorities to focus on pushing for independence."

An SNP Spokesperson said: "This poll shows that while the result south of the border is a foregone conclusion, huge numbers of seats in Scotland are on a knife edge - and people have the opportunity to make a real difference by turning out to vote on 4th July.

"In just one week's time, people in Scotland can vote for the SNP to protect our NHS from privatisation, end Westminster cuts and make sure that Scotland's interests are always put first."

READ MORE: Unspun: How to read the general election polls (and how not to)

Meanwhile, two new UK-wide megapolls published last night suggested Labour was on course for a historic win next week.

An MRP poll of more than 10,000 people by Focaldata for the Best for Britain campaign suggested Sir Keir Starmer could win 470 seats compared with 129 for the Tories. 

However, a second survey of over 19,000 people by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now forecast a particularly grim night for Rishi Sunak. 

They predicted the Prime Minister could lead his party into third place.

Their estimate had Labour at 450, the Lib Dems at 71, the Tories at 60, the SNP at 24,  Reform at 18 and the Greens at four.