First Minister John Swinney has said the SNP would still have a mandate for a second independence referendum if his party loses seats at the general election next month.

The SNP leader claimed a bad result on July 4 would not invalidate the mandate he says the Scottish Government has for another vote on the issue.

A pro-independence majority supporting indyref2 was returned at the last Holyrood election.
But the strategy was thrown into disarray after the UK Government refused to negotiate and the courts blocked Holyrood from staging their own referendum.

Current SNP policy states that winning a majority of seats at the general election should trigger talks with Westminster to give “democratic effect” to independence with Mr Swinney saying last week he would seek a referendum.

However, opinion polls show the SNP in line to lose many seats to Labour.

In an interview with the Daily Record ahead of the SNP manifesto launch today, Mr Swinney went further than the "majority" line by saying his government has a mandate regardless of the result next month.

Asked what his number one priority will be if Keir Starmer becomes PM, he said: “What I want is for the mandate that’s been secured in the Scottish Parliament for there to be an independence referendum to be accepted. That’s my number one ask.”

Asked what would happen if the SNP fell back to 20 seats, he said: “I think the mandate of the Scottish Parliament should be respected. That’s a democratic point.”

A new mega poll has predicted the SNP will lose all its seats in Glasgow and be left with around 15 MPs after next month's general election.

Across the UK, the survey by Ipsos Mori has the Conservatives winning just 115 seats, with Labour on 453 giving the party a 256 seat majority in the Commons.

This would be a bigger victory for Sir Keir Starmer's party than that secured in 1997 by Tony Blair when Labour party won 418 and the Conservatives 178. 

On these results, the Conservatives could be heading for their worst general election defeat in modern political history.

In Scotland, the Ipsos MRP poll, published last night, found "the fate of the SNP is still very much up in the air" with the implied vote shares in Scotland sitting at Labour 36%, SNP 33%, Conservative 13%, Liberal Democrats 8%, Reform UK 5%, Greens 3%, Other 1%.

It added that the model showed the SNP are expected to win around 15 seats. 

Ipsos Mori stated: "They are currently at risk of losing 29 of their 2019 notional seats to Labour and 3 to the Liberal Democrats, while 8 are too close to call.  In total, 12 out of the 57 seats in Scotland are too close to call."

However, the poll urged a degree of caution over its results saying they should "be interpreted with particular care".

"Census results have not yet been published at the constituency level, meaning we have had to rely on 2011 Census data and make adjustments where other data was available. This means the model is working with less accurate population data at the constituency level and the risk of error is higher."

The poll also suggested that Reform UK leader Nigel Farage winning in Clacton, former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn losing in Islington North, and high-profile Conservatives such as Penny Mordaunt, Jacob Rees Mogg, and Grant Shapps facing losses.

It pointed to the Liberal Democrats poised to win 38 seats, Reform UK 3, and Greens 3.
The Ipsos MRP projection used a large-scale online survey of nearly 20,000 participants on the Ipsos KnowledgePanel, and population data at a constituency level, to project which party will win individual seats at the upcoming General Election.

The SNP manifesto has put seeking an additional £1 billion a year for Scotland's SNP as a key pledge.

The SNP leader claimed Labour and the Conservatives present a "clear and present danger" to the future of the NHS.

Ahead of the manifesto launch, Mr Swinney urged whichever party wins the General Election to commit to spending at least £10 billion extra annually on health across the UK.

That would see around £1 billion granted to Scotland through Barnett consequentials which the SNP leader said could bolster the NHS north of the border.

He is also urging the future Prime Minister to resolve pay disputes in NHS England by investing at least £6 billion to match a pay deal agreed for junior doctors and nurses in Scotland.

However, Mr Swinney will face criticism for focusing on the NHS as his political opponents repeatedly condemn the Scottish Government for missing targets on A&E performance and cancer waiting times.