A new poll has predicted the SNP will lose all its seats in Glasgow and be left with around 15 MPs after next month's general election.

Across the UK, the survey by Ipsos Mori has the Conservatives winning just 115 seats, with Labour on 453 giving the party a 256 seat majority in the Commons.

This would be a bigger victory for Sir Keir Starmer's party than that secured in 1997 by Tony Blair when Labour party won 418 and the Conservatives 178. 

On these results, the Conservatives could be heading for their worst general election defeat in modern political history.

In Scotland, the Ipsos MRP (Multiple Regression and Post-Stratification) poll, published last night, found "the fate of the SNP is still very much up in the air" with the implied vote shares in Scotland sitting at Labour 36%, SNP 33%, Conservative 13%, Liberal Democrats 8%, Reform UK 5%, Greens 3%, Other 1%.

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It added that the model showed the SNP is expected to win around 15 seats on July 4 losing all six seats in Glasgow as well as constituencies in the central belt.

Ipsos Mori stated: "They are currently at risk of losing 29 of their 2019 notional seats to Labour and 3 to the Liberal Democrats, while 8 are too close to call.  In total, 12 out of the 57 seats in Scotland are too close to call."

However, the poll urged caution over its results in Scotland saying they should "be interpreted with particular care".

"Census results have not yet been published at the constituency level, meaning we have had to rely on 2011 Census data and make adjustments where other data was available. This means the model is working with less accurate population data at the constituency level and the risk of error is higher."

Writing in the Herald today Rachel Ormston and Chris Martin, Research Directors at Ipsos Scotland explained that a MRP is a statistical technique used to estimate the share of the vote in each constituency and differs from polls which sample how voters intend to vote.

"Simply put, MRP involves taking a very large poll of voting intentions (typically 10,000+) and using it to analyse how different types of people in different types of seat say they will vote," they said.

"For example, it estimates the probability that a woman, aged 25-34, educated to degree level, living in an SNP/Labour marginal seat, who voted SNP in 2019 will vote for each party running in that constituency. The model creates thousands of these estimates, and then applies them to the demographic profiles of each constituency (based on data from, for example, the Census) to estimate how the votes might fall out for each party."

They went on to say the MRP suggest Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross, who is standing i Aberdeenshire North and Moray East would lose to the SNP.

"In Aberdeenshire North and Moray East – the subject of much controversy after Douglas Ross announced he would stand, the Scottish Conservatives having taken the decision that David Duguid, the sitting MP, was too ill to stand (against Mr Duguid’s own assessment) – the Conservatives looked set to lose out to the SNP," they added.

"Just hours after our MRP model was published, the electoral landscape in that seat has changed yet again, with the withdrawal of Labour party support for its candidate. This may or may not benefit Mr Ross, depending on whether voters in the seat who had been planning on supporting Labour switch to the Conservatives or to the SNP."

The Ipsos Mori MRP poll also suggested that Reform UK leader Nigel Farage winning in Clacton, former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn losing in Islington North, and high-profile Conservatives such as Penny Mordaunt, Jacob Rees-Mogg, and Grant Shapps facing losses.

It pointed to the Liberal Democrats poised to win 38 seats, Reform UK 3, and Greens 3.

The Ipsos MRP projection used a large-scale online survey of nearly 20,000 participants on the Ipsos KnowledgePanel, and population data at a constituency level, to project which party will win individual seats at the upcoming General Election.

The publication of the poll comes ahead of the SNP's manifesto launch in Edinburgh this morning.

First Minister John Swinney has promised to seek an additional £1 billion a year for Scotland's SNP as a key pledge.

The SNP leader claimed Labour and the Conservatives present a "clear and present danger" to the future of the NHS.

Ahead of the manifesto launch, Mr Swinney urged whichever party wins the General Election to commit to spending at least £10 billion extra annually on health across the UK.

That would see around £1 billion granted to Scotland through Barnett consequentials which the SNP leader said could bolster the NHS north of the border.

He is also urging the future Prime Minister to resolve pay disputes in NHS England by investing at least £6 billion to match a pay deal agreed for junior doctors and nurses in Scotland.

However, Mr Swinney will face criticism for focusing on the NHS as his political opponents repeatedly condemn the Scottish Government for missing targets on A&E performance and cancer waiting times.