Rishi Sunak’s had a rotten couple of days, He was already behind in the polls when Nigel Farage unexpectedly became leader of Reform and announced he was going to stand for Parliament.

Now the Tories have gone from a possible drubbing on July 4 to an existential crisis.

ITV’s leaders’ debate was the Prime Minister’s chance to try and get on the front foot, it was an opportunity to expose the thinness of Labour’s offer and Sir Keir Starmer’s lack of conviction.

Did he manage? Well, no, but he had his moments.

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YouGov snap polling straight after the hour-long show suggested 51% of people thought Sunak performed best compared to 49% for Starmer.

When you're 20 points behind in the polls, you take these small wins wherever you can.

The real loser of the night was probably ITV. The two-party bosses were given just 45 seconds to answer fairly difficult complex questions.

That led to a frequently shouty free-for-all with host Julie Etchingham struggling to control the men, particularly Sunak, who talked over Starmer.

There were a lot of numbers thrown about in the debate. Some were big. Some weren’t as big as they used to be. Some were bigger than they should have been.

Some were spurious or possibly just made up. Certainly, the £2,000 Labour tax hike Sunak mentioned repeatedly was an odd one.

Odder still was how long it took Starmer to shut it down.

After the debate, Labour said the costings were based on a raft of possibly deliberate misunderstandings of policies on schools, the NHS and policing, pulled together by a Tory adviser and fed into the Treasury for analysis.

The Tories dispute that.

Expect this to rumble on.

But the numbers that mattered came from Paula at the beginning.

“I have worked since I was 15 years old and at the moment I have a full-time and stable job," she told the two men.

“My children have left home in the last few years. I found it very difficult to make ends meet and the money simply doesn't go far enough.

“All I do is work to live. My food bill is nearly double. I'm in arrears with my bills.

“I spend my weekends batch cooking so I don't have to turn on my oven in peak times.

“My savings are gone. And I'm genuinely worried about my future.

“I don't think you actually understand how this is for people like me. So what can you do about that?”

Sunak, whose personal wealth rose by £122m last year, taking his estimated fortune to £651m, told her "I know how much of a strain the last few years have put on your family finances, the family finances of everyone in our country."

It was probably the most tone-deaf moment of the night.

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The biggest news line of the night was Sunak confirming he would leave the European Convention on Human Rights if the Rwanda plan was blocked in the courts.

The Prime Minister said: “I’m crystal clear, I believe all our plans are compliant with our international obligations, but if I am forced to choose between securing our borders and our country’s security, or a foreign court, I’m going to choose our country’s security every single time.”

He won a round of applause.

Starmer also won a round of applause when said the UK risked becoming a “pariah” state if it left international conventions.

“We will not pull out of international agreements and international law which is respected the world over,” he said.

“Because I want the UK to be a respected player on the global stage, not a pariah who doesn’t agree with international law.”

Sunak came out swinging and got some hits, but Starmer will be happy that he didn't drop the ming vase. 

The two men face each other again on June 26. By then we should, by that point, have manifestos and a better understanding of the Farage effect on the Tory vote.

Three weeks is a long time in politics.