More than a quarter of those who voted for the SNP in 2019 are set to back Labour on July 4, according to a new poll.
The survey for Redfield and Wilton will make for grim reading for John Swinney and his candidates.
When asked how they will vote next month, 39% of Scots said Labour, while 29% said the SNP.
READ MORE: Labour government will 'work in partnership' with Scottish Government
Meanwhile, 17% would back the Conservatives, up three points on last month. Though only a small rise it in stark contrast to the party’s polling south of the border.
The Lib Dems are on 8%, the Greens are on 3% and Alba on 1%.
Reform are on 4%, though the fieldwork for the poll was completed before Nigel Farage’s shock return as the party’s leader.
Joint-largest Labour lead in Scotland with ANY polling company since June 2014.
— Redfield & Wilton Strategies (@RedfieldWilton) June 4, 2024
🏴 Westminster VI (1-2 June):
Labour 39% (+1)
SNP 29% (-2)
Conservative 17% (+3)
Lib Dem 8% (–)
Reform UK 4% (–)
Green 3% (-1)
Alba 1% (–)
Other 1% (+1)
Changes +/- 8-9 Mayhttps://t.co/1IoyQDeyVY pic.twitter.com/np2WVfFktt
That would see the SNP returned with just seven seats, while Labour would win 41.
When those who backed the SNP at the last Westminster election were asked how they would vote, just 50% said they would stick with the SNP, with another 27% switching to Labour.
Just another 3% said they would back the Greens, the same number as would back Alba. Around 10% said they still have not made up their minds.
It was a similar story for the Scottish Tories, with only 55% of the parties 2019 voters sticking with Douglas Ross. Around 18% are going to Labour, 7% to Reform and 3% going to the SNP.
There was some good news for the SNP on the Holyrood polling, with the party leading Labour by 1% in the constituency and by 3% in the list.
The firm also found Mr Swinney had a positive approval rating amongst Scottish voters. Some 29% approved of his job performance compared to 27% who disapprove, giving him a net rating of +2.
Sir Keir Stamer's net rating was +4, while Rishi Sunak's was -34.
When asked about independence, 49% of voters backed No, compared to 46% who would back yes.
Earlier in the day, Mr Swinney insisted his party could still win the election in Scotland.
The First Minister told PA: “I’m really clear that this is a tough election for the SNP. We’ve had a rough period, that’s why I’m here.
“I didn’t expect to be leading the SNP election campaign, but I am – and I’m here to make sure that we win this election in Scotland.
“There’s four weeks of campaigning to go. I want to build SNP support towards polling day.
“We’re focused on taking an energetic, hopeful message to the people of Scotland which is based on the principle that decisions made in Scotland should be for Scotland, and SNP MPs elected to the House of Commons can be relied upon to put Scotland’s interests first.”
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Earlier in the day, Tory Home Secretary James Cleverly told Sky News that the only poll that mattered was on July 4.
Despite Labour huge lead over the Tories in most recent UK wide polls, he insisted people were “completely unconvinced" Sir Keir Starmer and his party.
“At these turbulent times, handing control of the country to a man who doesn’t even really seem to be in control of his own shadow cabinet is probably not a good idea.”
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