The SNP could fall to just 16 seats, according to the first Scotland-wide poll carried out since Rishi Sunak called the general election.

A survey by Survation for True North spoke to 1,026 people aged 16 and over between May 23 and Monday.

Of those, 36% said they would give their vote to Labour on July 4, while the SNP was backed by 32% of voters.

The Tories were on 17% and the Lib Dems on 9%.

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Because of the first-past-the-post system and Scotland’s electoral geography, particularly the concentration of Labour voters in the central belt, this would mean success for Scottish Labour.

According to Professor Sir John Curtice that would give Sir Keir Starmer's party 28 of Scotland's 57 seats, up from the one they won in 2019.

The SNP would fall from the 48 won at the last election to 16, while the Tories would add two to take eight, and the Lib Dems would gain one to take them to five. 

Sir John said the party's support was as much as four points down from where it was at the start of the year.

He said: “The fallout from Humza Yousaf's termination of the Bute House Agreement has enabled the SNP to install a somewhat less unpopular leader in John Swinney.

"However, Mr Swinney's rating is well below what Nicola Sturgeon enjoyed before she resigned as the SNP's head last year, and the downfall of Mr Yousaf has not provided an immediate remedy for the SNP's electoral difficulties."

Part of the problem for the SNP, Sir John added, was that fewer than two in three of those who would vote Yes in an independence referendum were currently minded to back the party. 

“As the general election campaign gets underway, the SNP face the prospect of severe losses at the beginning of July, and thus the possible loss of its coveted status as the third largest party at Westminster.

"The party badly needs to try and persuade Yes supporters to return to the party fold.”

The Herald:

True North managing partner – and former SNP head of communications – Fergus Mutch said it was “Labour’s election to lose.”

“These figures suggest that they are primed to overturn a score of SNP-held seats in central belt Scotland and return the most MPs to Westminster.

"With momentum on the side of the Labour Party UK-wide, it will require a powerful response from any party seeking to halt this juggernaut. 

“That said, the difference in vote share between Labour and the SNP remains fairly marginal — and these figures are tighter than suggested by other polls in recent weeks."

The poll also asked about voting intentions for Holyrood.

According to the figures, Labour would become the largest party winning 48 seats to the SNP’s 42.

The Tories would drop to 17, while the Lib Dems would return 13 MSPs and the Greens would win 9.

Personal approval ratings of political leaders also showed Sir Keir Starmer to be the most popular among respondents, sitting on a 3% net approval rating compared to -38% for Rishi Sunak.

First Minister John Swinney – who took over the reins of the SNP just weeks ago – was on -7%, just behind Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar on -3%

Support for independence also replicated that of the 2014 referendum, with 45% of decided voters backing separation and 55% in favour of staying in the UK.

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SNP depute leader Keith Brown said: “We need to get rid of the Tory Government. The way to do that in Scotland is to vote SNP because we are the main challengers in every Tory held seat.

“Austerity, Brexit and the cost of living crisis – all imposed on Scotland by Westminster – have pushed up household costs, hit the economy hard and cut the money available to spend on the NHS.

“At this election, vote SNP to put the interests of Scotland first.”

Scottish Labour deputy leader Dame Jackie Baillie said the First Minister was not as popular as he claimed to be.

She said: “SNP top brass that have been paraded in front of the media to boast about John Swinney’s popularity have been left with egg on their face as this poll shows that both Anas Sarwar and Keir Starmer are more popular than him,” she added.

“The reality is that the Scottish National Party has lost its only positive message in this campaign and is now left with only scaremongering and misinformation to try to distract from their failure.

“Scottish Labour doesn’t want to just send a message to Westminster – we want to send a government that will boost pay, cut bills, renew public services, and revive our economy.”