Labour hail 'bombshell' poll putting them 10 points ahead of SNP

Sir Keir Starmer would see his haul from north of the border jump from two to 35.

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The polling - carried out for the Times and taken between 13-17 May - has Labour’s Westminster vote share at 39%, up five points from late April.

The SNP is now on 29%.

Elsewhere, the Tories are on 12%, the Lib Dems on 8% and Reform UK on 4%.

The Greens are up three points since the ending of the Bute House Agreement, up to 7%.

Sir John said that would see the Tories retain their six seats, and the Lib Dems would add one to return five.

Numbers are tighter when it comes to Holyrood elections. 

Labour and the SNP are near enough neck and neck on 35% and 34% respectively at the constituency vote, while the regional vote sees Labour on 32% to the SNP’s 28%.

Sir John projected that this would result in Labour returning 47 MSPs, the SNP 42 and the Conservatives 16, with the Greens and the Lib Dems each winning 12 seats.

There is some good news for the SNP.

John Swinney has seen a significant improvement in his favourability ratings since the April poll, although YouGov says he ”ultimately proves divisive rather than popular.”

More than one in three Scots, 35%, have a favourable view of the new national leader, up ten points, while 38% have a negative opinion, giving him a net favourability rating of -3.

This shift has come largely from the “don’t know” category, with Scots nine points less likely to have a view of Swinney now than they were last month.

Some 35% of voters think Mr Swinney will do a good job, while 31% think he will do a bad one.

Only 9% think he will do worse than Humza Yousaf.

Voters, however, are split on how he will compare to Nicola Sturgeon. Some 21% think he will do better, 22% worse, and 41% about the same.

Most Scots - between 58 and 62% - say they have little to no confidence in the SNP to make the right decisions on the economy, health service, schools, police and climate change.

On independence, voting intention has remained effectively unchanged since April, with 55% voting no, and 45% backing yes.

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Sir John told the Times that Labour’s strategy “of inviting voters to vent their disappointment with both the UK and the Scottish governments appears to be paying rich dividends”.

The strategy has seen the party pick up almost a third of people who voted Conservative in 2019 and a quarter of people who backed the SNP at the same election.

“Today’s poll reveals that simply replacing Yousaf with Swinney has on its own not been enough to reverse the damage to the party’s reputation occasioned by the circumstances surrounding Yousaf’s downfall,” the Strathclyde University psephologist said.

“While in this poll Swinney is more popular than his deposed predecessor, his favourability rating among those who voted SNP in 2019 is still no higher than Yousaf’s before his downfall.

“Meanwhile, there is no sign of recovery in voters’ confidence in the SNP’s ability to run Scotland’s economy and its public services. Swinney’s ability to win over voters looks as though it is going to be severely tested between now and the general election.”

Scottish Labour’s deputy leader Jackie Baillie described the poll as a “bombshell.”

“At both Westminster and Holyrood Scottish Labour is gaining support but we are taking nothing for granted and will continue to work hard to gain the trust and support of Scots.

“While the SNP try to drag Scotland back into the past with yesterday’s man John Swinney, Scottish Labour is relentlessly focused on the future.

“In place of SNP failure, Scottish Labour has a plan to bring down bills, tackle NHS waiting lists, boost workers’ rights and deliver jobs.

“Change is coming and Scottish Labour will continue to work tirelessly to deliver the change we need.”