Rural depopulation and short-term lets study 'surprising'

It follows the introduction of a controversial licensing scheme for short-term let and B&B owners last year.

Roddy Macleod, who describes himself as a "retired information professional" said there were too many examples of policymakers "deciding what is good for the Highlands and Islands based on incorrect, over-simplified theories".

Mr Macleod, a second-home owner himself, carried out his own research looking at population change since 2010 in areas across Argyll and Bute - which declared a housing emergency last year -  and the number of  short-term lets (STLs).

He used National Records of Scotland data and maps of  'Airbnb' listed properties.

He makes clear that his analysis was fairly crude because it will not include STLs that don't use this platform but said a "surprising" trend was nevertheless apparent.

"In virtually all of those rural zones showing population decline (apart from Tiree, and the Isle of Bute, which have their own issues), there were very few short-term lets, however there were proportionally many more lets located in all of the rural zones showing population increase," he said.

Roddy Macleod said arguments over short-term lets and second homes are 'over simplified' (Image: Roddy Macleod)

"This was not what I was expecting to find as I have read views from some sources saying that there are too many short-term lets and that their proliferation may deprive local people from finding housing."

He said NRS interactive visualisations show population decline "in all but one town" in Argyll and Bute since 2010 including; Rothesay, Tarbert, Lochgilpead, Dunoon and much of Helensburgh and central Oban.

He acknowledged there would be "many reasons" for this but said the exception was Tobermory on the Isle of Mull, which has experienced a population increase of 3.6%.

He said: "There are quite a lot of short-term lets there. Just a coincidence?  Of course not.

He argues that holiday lets provide a variety of job opportunities, local income, customers for nearby attractions and footfall at other locations, "all of which bring valuable earnings to the rural locations in question".

He added: "If their numbers fall, this will herald in a loss of jobs and then further population decline in more rural areas of Argyll and Bute.

"Do I think the same picture will emerge in the Highlands and Islands? "I think yes, and no, depending on which parts you choose.

"I believe that population will continue to increase in the most popular of all tourist destinations such as Skye.

"The tourist industry there is particularly sturdy, the many STLs sell out their availability very quickly and will relatively easily ingest most new licence and related costs. 

"It is in the outer isles, where the tourist season is the briefest and the STLs and B&Bs are the most part-time, and as a result the most likely, therefore, not to have applied for STL licences, that the biggest effects will be felt and depopulation will continue."

Scottish Government data from 2023 shows that property owners in the Highlands have submitted the highest number of short-term let licence applications (920) followed by Dumfries and Galloway (436) and Fife (300).

Read more:

The only little boy in famous Highland Street where half the homes lie empty 

Lorna Slater should 'hang her head in shame' for collapse of island castle deal

The government said a relatively low number of applications were received from Edinburgh and Glasgow City and other urban local authorities such as Aberdeen and Dundee.

Mr Macleod says he does not believe that the scheme will lead to greater numbers of properties becoming available for long-term rent. 

He said: "We have already seen well-intentioned policies with respect to long-term rented property - rent caps, etc - have the net result of reducing the number of available long-term rented properties, which in turn has detrimentally impacted the housing crisis."

He said his own second home was purchased after he and his wife were "satisfied that we were not denying a home to a local family."

He said: "We eventually identified a house in a rural situation where there were not many other second homes or short-term lets.

"The house had been originally built as a holiday home, and had been on the market for several months without any interest from anyone local.

"We paid less than the valuation price so were not encouraging house price inflation.

"While renovating the property we spent some time in it during winter, and found that as it cost a small fortune to heat and suffered from condensation when cold outside, it was not a property ideally suited to year-long occupation, but lovely for summer living.

"I reckon that many rural short-term lets are similar, in this way."

Fergus Ewing, SNP MSP for Inverness and Nairn, has been a vocal opponent of the STL legislation.

He said the way to get more more homes was "to build them and not to regulate existing hard-working business."

Mr Macleod points to Scottish Government data that shows that "only 94 houses of any kind" were built in Argyll and Bute in 2022, which is implementing the 100% council tax rise on second homes.

He said: "This was the lowest ever number on record and is an appallingly low figure for such a large council area.

"The new development at Dunbeg, north of Oban, will give a welcome boost to 2023 figures, but much, much more needs to be done to encourage new builds."

A spokeswoman for Argyll and Bute council said the report did not include private housing “so the true figure will be much higher.”

She said there was a slight rise in the area’s population last year.