Will Kate Forbes run for SNP leader? Why would she want to?

It’s the question that’s been occupying Scotland’s political commentariat from the moment it was clear Humza Yousaf had sailed up excrement estuary and thrown his paddle overboard: will Kate Forbes run?

Given she was only narrowly defeated by the outgoing First Minister in last year’s leadership contest it’s a logical question, but the more pertinent one might be: why would she want to?

It’s easy to forget that the contest to replace Nicola Sturgeon was brutal. Forget Ash Regan and her independence thermometer – which now appears to be being used to take Alex Salmond’s temperature – the opposition to Ms Forbes was fierce.

Her membership of the Free Church of Scotland came under the microscope, with likely opponent this time John Swinney saying the membership were “entitled to decide” if some of her beliefs disbarred her from being leadership material.

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Previously seen by most as merely a competent and canny operator, the stances of Ms Forbes and her church on hot button issues such as abortion, trans rights, gay marriage and even sex outside wedlock were raked over in excruciating detail, and most of the reception was not positive. Would she really want to go through all of that again barely a year later?

That’s not to say that all of the scrutiny has been unfair, or unwarranted.

Ms Forbes is perfectly entitled to hold whatever religious beliefs she wants, just as any person on the street is free to hold whatever religious belief they like – or hold none at all.

However, the former finance secretary has made clear that her spiritual beliefs would have at least some impact on her decisions at Holyrood. Ms Forbes has said she would not have voted for equal marriage, but equally that were she to become First Minister she would not look to roll back the legislation.

That’s all well and good, but what about future issues where her faith could have a bearing on matters of government? This week Holyrood will have a first vote on the buffer zone bill which would create an exclusion area around clinics where women access abortion services, those centres having been the target of ‘pro-life’ protests and so-called ‘prayer vigils’.

The Free Church of Scotland believes that abortion is a sin, which is their right, but it’s fair to ask whether that stance would affect Ms Forbes’ own attitude to the matter. That’s not “anti-Christian”, it just means that your religious beliefs shouldn’t affect my life.

In the end it may not be the scrutiny, warranted or unwarranted, that prevents the MSP from taking another tilt at the top job. A far more likely reason for staying away is timing.

With a Westminster election coming up this year and a Holyrood ballot in 2026 there are two possible scenarios for the SNP. The first is that some of the more pessimistic polls come to pass. Labour makes huge gains in the Westminster election and forms the Scottish Government at Holyrood, taking independence off the agenda for the foreseeable future. You wouldn’t want to be the leader in the aftermath of either of those things, as Ms Forbes has said herself. She told The Guardian’s politics podcast in 2021: “If you crash and burn spectacularly, that’s the last gig you’re going to be asked to do.”

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Let’s look at the other option. The SNP vote proves remarkably resilient thanks to enduring support for independence, meaning the party holds most of the seats it currently has at Westminster. Residual anger over the Bute House Disagreement means independence-minded people who would usually lend their votes to the Greens instead give both to the SNP – a strategy which never made much sense but actually might if the Labour resurgence comes to pass – and John Swinney is re-elected as First Minister. Given that the former leader doesn’t much seem to want the job and is seen as a man to steady the ship, it’s not unlikely that he’d hand over to a younger rising star of the party with the SNP in far better nick than it is now. Ms Forbes would be ideally placed to win a leadership contest in that scenario.

Of course it’s impossible to say what the landscape will look like for any future contest, not least if Westminster leader Stephen Flynn decides to stand as an MSP and take a tilt at the big job.

Still, patience may well prove a virtue for Kate Forbes.