Is Georgia now sliding under the Kremlin’s sphere of control?

The anthem itself of course symbolises not only the EU but also Europe in a wider sense and its ideals of freedom, peace and solidarity.

All are values that many Georgians right now feel are under threat, alongside the prospect of their country’s long-desired EU membership.

Spearheading that threat they say are attempts by the government to revive a bill on “foreign agents” or “influence” that it shelved last year after mass demonstrations.

Ever since April 3 those mass protests have restarted, some of which have resulted in violent clashes with the police.

The controversial legislation proposed by the ruling Georgian Dream Party critics contend, mirrors a repressive Russian law on “foreign agents” that has been used against independent news media and groups seen as being at odds with the Kremlin.

“No to the Russian law” goes the chants of protesters alongside regular renditions of Ode to Joy as those on the streets double down in their opposition to a law they feel will undermine Tbilisi’s aspirations for closer EU ties and, ultimately, membership.

For its part Brussels has made it clear that the law threatens Georgia’s membership aspirations, which are supported by almost 90 per cent of it citizens. Last week EU foreign ministers expressed “concerns” about the law, the bloc’s chief diplomat Josep Borrell said, adding that the European Commission would issue an “oral report” on the situation.

“The law in its current form risks having a chilling effect on civil society and media organisations, with negative consequences for the many Georgians benefiting from their work,” said Borrell, when Georgian Dream first introduced the bill. And again last week he repeated his assertion that the law “is incompatible with the European Union’s values.”

Borrell’s remarks were universally echoed by other EU officials among them Janez Lenarcic, the EU’s commissioner for crisis management. “I urge the political leaders of Georgia to withdraw the draft law. As it was the case last year, it is clear that this legislation is incompatible with the EU norms and values,” Janez Lenarcic said last Tuesday. “If adopted, it would jeopardise Georgia’s progress on the EU path,” he added. But concern is not limited to the EU, with Washington also voicing concern that the law would “derail Georgia from its European path,” while international human rights groups like Amnesty International have urged Georgia’s authorities to “immediately stop their incessant efforts to impose repressive legislation on the country’s vibrant civil society.”

Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili addresses a rally in downtown Tbilisi on November 8, 2023 to voice support for their country's path to EU membership, after Brussels moved to grant the Caucasus country candidate status

Georgian Dream

So what exactly is so contentious about this legislation that has EU and other Western officials so concerned, and what does it tell us about both the ruling Georgian Dream Party’s alleged links with pro-Kremlin politicians and Georgia’s wider disdain for its giant Russian neighbour?

To begin with, under the terms of the proposed law, organisations that receive 20 per cent or more of their funding from overseas will have to register as agents of foreign influence and adhere to tight administrative rules, or else face substantial fines. Humanitarian organisations, as well as campaign groups and corruption watchdogs, could all face being branded with the label. In recent years Russia has used similar versions of the legislation to crack down on domestic dissent and target organisations critical of the government. Under the Kremlin’s use of the law, hundreds of journalists, politicians, rights organisations, environmental groups, LGBTQ support networks and others have been listed as foreign agents, obliging them to label themselves as such every time they publish anything on social media or elsewhere. The use of the term “foreign agent,” too say critics is significant carrying with it connotations of spying, which they say have been used to create a climate of suspicion around people and organisations the Russian authorities want to portray as subversive.

In defending the legislation which has passed an initial round of voting in parliament but has yet to be adopted as law, the Georgian Dream Party insists it is modelled on a US law, the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) and says the legislation is needed to promote transparency and combat “pseudo-liberal values” imposed by foreigners.

The Dream Party reintroduced the bill to parliament earlier this month, in a surprise announcement ahead of Georgia’s parliamentary elections in October. The new bill is almost identical to one that the Dream Party tried to introduce in March 2023, but on that occasion it backed down after two nights of violent protests. The government now says that back then people were misled by the “radical opposition” into opposing the law, and that is why it is currently trying again.

Now in the latest vote boycotted by the opposition in the 150-seat parliament, 83 politicians from the Dream party backed the bill though some 20,000 people blocked traffic in front of the parliament building in the capital, Tbilisi, to show their opposition to the measure.

'People are power'

Speaking at the rally, opposition member of parliament Aleksandre Ellisashvili condemned politicians who voted for the bill as “traitors” and said the rest of Georgia would show them that “people are power, and not the traitor government”.

Right now for the bill to become law it still has to pass second and third readings in parliament and secure presidential backing. But the Dream Party’s commanding majority in the legislature means it would be able to pass those further stages and vote down a presidential veto. All of which along with other measures say some observers, are tantamount to the Dream Party sabotaging Georgia’s aspirations to join the EU.

“It (the ‘foreign influence’ legislation) is one of the main steps. But also, we should have the full picture here,” says Tinatin Akhvlediani, a research fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS).

“The ruling party has also passed other laws, one abolishing gender quotas, which is definitely in breach of the conditions Georgia received for its (EU) candidacy. And then another law against anti-LGBTIQ rights. This is again in breach of European values. This is again active non-compliance…and these initiations come from the Georgian Dream Party,” Akhvlediani explained in an interview with the monthly EU politics, policy and culture magazine, The Parliament. Many Georgians and other outside observers though say they see the hand of the Kremlin in all of these efforts to scupper Georgia’s EU aspirations.

Georgian Dream is widely believed to be under the control of pro-Kremlin oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, who served as Prime Minister of Georgia from October 2012 to November 2013. He no doubt would likely be pleased with thwarting the country’s EU ambitions given that among the conditions for further EU integration are reducing the power of oligarchs and strengthening civil society and human rights.

Russian President Vladimir Putin gestures during the plenary session of the congress of Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP) on April 25 2024 in Moscow

Exerting pressure?

For its part Russia says it wants “stability and predictability” in Georgia but denies it is exerting pressure on its neighbour to enact the law. The Kremlin says it is absurd for opponents of the bill to portray it as a Russian project. Its spokesman Dmitry Peskov said last week that the situation in Georgia was being used to “provoke anti-Russian sentiments” and that the Kremlin was closely watching developments.

But some say there are dangerous signs of Georgia fast drifting into the Kremlin’s orbit with the war in Ukraine becoming a notable political pressure point. Georgia’s opposition activists point to the Dream Party government’s refusal to join sanctions against Russia or return an anti-aircraft missile system that Ukraine gave Georgia in 2008 as measures to appease Russian president Vladimir Putin. Many Georgians recognise echoes of their past and their possible future in the war in Ukraine. For it was back in 2008, that Russia invaded Georgia exploiting a frozen ethnic conflict. Its tanks advanced to around 50km from Tbilisi before Western diplomats brokered a withdrawal, even though Russia still occupies 20 per cent of the country in violation of the agreement.

Back then at the height of that short war lasting a few weeks which I covered as a reporter, I remember accompanying other journalists into the disputed town of Gori. Known as the birthplace of Joseph Stalin, the town had then become one of the key flashpoints between Russian and Georgian troops.

On Gori’s outskirts Russian soldiers, until then recently deployed in Chechnya, had set up checkpoints, their decrepit, ageing tanks and personnel carriers clearly having seen better days.

The soldiers, too, were less than impressive. Most seemed unkempt, their uniforms a hybrid mix of styles more in keeping with an irregular militia than a conventional modern army.

But it was the Russian soldiers behaviour I recall most of all. Many appeared ill disciplined and some were clearly drunk, including one senior general who, despite reeking of booze and slurring his speech, insisted on giving an impromptu press conference to assembled international correspondents.

Overall, the impression was of an antiquated army, whose vehicles, weapons and appearance had changed little since my first encounter with Red Army conscripts in Afghanistan 25 years earlier.

Georgian pro-democracy groups activists protest against a repressive "foreign influence" bill outside the parliament in Tbilisi on April 15

Modern warfare

Today of course the Russian Army is an altogether different force from those times back in 2008, its growth and modernisation all too evident in its war with Ukraine. Given this history and the apparent leanings of the Dream Party towards Moscow its perhaps not surprising then that many Georgians, the young especially, look on nervously and are quick to voice their opposition to their government’s apparent cosiness with the Kremlin. In Russia’s war with Ukraine they see the writing on the wall of what might be.

Ukrainian flags are a common sight across Georgia as are houses sporting graffiti reading “Georgia is Ukraine; Ukraine is Georgia”. Activists say this is not just some outburst of liberal middle class sentiment but goes much deeper and point to some 1,000 Georgian volunteers that are believed to be fighting on Ukraine’s side. But equally too, many Georgians are afraid of being dragged into a war with Russia, an argument the Dream Party has exploited to undermine any opposition. The current political landscape is further complicated by the presence of some 100,000 Russian exiles who have taken refuge in Georgia from the same Russian regime that still occupies part of the country.

Many of these exiles are young and educated and have no truck with the Putin regime and are against Moscow’s war in Ukraine.

But for the moment it’s mainly young Georgians that are taking to Tbilisi’s streets in protest at the “foreign agents” or “influence.” legislation that sits ready for the statute books.

For them this is something of a make or break issue, one they know that if the Dream Party gets its way, it would seriously set back Georgia’s dearly sought after EU membership that also offers a measure of protection against Russian ambitions in their country.

“Passing this law is a question of survival for the Georgian Dream . . . The party needs a constitutional majority in the upcoming elections, but according to all the polls it is not on their cards,” was how Kornely Kakachia Professor of Political Science at Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University summed it up, speaking to the Financial Times last week as the protests in Tbilisi rumbled on.

Georgia's President Salome Zourabichvili, who is in a bitter dispute with the government, told journalists last week that questions remained over who might be behind the Dream Party’s renewed push to adopt the law.

“Is it in Georgia or is it beyond our borders, is it in Moscow that this decision has been taken?” she asked.

With Georgia’s EU candidate status granted in December last year now on the line the stakes could not be higher. This year’s vote could determine whether Georgia confirms its European trajectory and thereby preserves its independence – or whether it is set on a path that hastens its slide into Russia’s sphere of control.