Humza Yousaf's position as First Minister hangs in the balance as he faces a no confidence motion in Holyrood next week.
It's possible Mr Yousaf may not survive the vote brought by the Tories after the collapse of the Bute House Agreement today.
But even if he narrowly survives the move to remove him, his position in office and as SNP leader has been severely weakened.
Just two days ago, Mr Yousaf was singing the praises of the Bute House Agreement and saying there was "no need" or "want" for SNP members to have have another vote on the matter.
Despite repeated warnings from some within the SNP that the deal may be nearing the end of its shelf life he still gave it his full backing.
On Tuesday, he said: “I hope that cooperation agreement will continue and I hope that Green members will also see the benefit of that cooperation.”
That he ended the pact today after so forcefully backing it then was clearly a huge political U-turn and climbdown.
It makes him look rather swayed by events and pushed into making such a crucial decision rather than seizing the initiative - which would have been the case had he pulled out of the pact much earlier.
A cannier leader could have pulled out of the Bute House Agreement at the weekend after the Greens fury; a cannier one still ahead of the announcement that the Scottish Government was to drop its target to reduce carbon emissions by 75% by 2030.
Did he not pause to contemplate ahead of last Thursday's decision by his Cabinet Secretary for Net Zero Mairi McAllan that such an announcement would potentially put the Bute House Agreement at breaking point?
Was he perhaps too trusting of assurances from Green MSPs that all would be fine if new measures were put in place to "accelerate" climate action?
Now Mr Yousaf is facing a no confidence motion within days.
Should he not win the vote, it would be incredibly difficult for him to survive as First Minister, though the parliamentary rules say what action he takes following such a result would be a matter for him.
For him to remain in office, defying the will of MSPs, would be a statement that he is content to ignore the wishes of parliament.
This is hardly a stance in keeping with a democratically elected leader.
At the time of writing the Tories, Labour, the Lib Dems are all going to back the no confidence motion.
It remains to be seen yet how the Greens will vote. My assessment given their reaction to the ending of the Bute House Agreement is that they will be in no mood to come to Mr Yousaf's rescue.
Later this afternoon they confirmed they would support the motion of no confidence.
Alba MSP Ash Regan - the former SNP minister whom he defeated along with Kate Forbes in last year's leadership contest - has written to Mr Yousaf with a list of demands in return for her support.
And given parliamentary arithmetic her vote to back him could enable his survival should all SNP MSPs also continue to support him, as would be expected.
But even if he does see off the confidence motion and fight on as First Minister next week his actions over the past few days have dented his authority and raised fresh concerns over his leadership.
One senior figure in the SNP told the Herald on Sunday just last weekend it was now just a question of 'when not if' Mr Yousaf would be standing down.
The events since then bring this development considerably closer.
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules hereLast Updated:
Report this comment Cancel