Analysis: How gubbed are Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives?

Speaking to journalists in Drumchapel on Monday morning, Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar said two things I’m not 100% convinced that in his heart of hearts he actually believes.

The first was when he said Scotland could be responsible for the “upset of all time” and beat Germany in the opening game of the Euros on their home turf.

I’m as optimistic as the next Scotland fan, but after last week’s dismal effort against Northern Ireland, that feels borderline delusional.

I’ll be content if we leave Munich on 14 June without embarrassing ourselves.

The second thing Sarwar said that felt slightly unbelievable was that the Tories might “pull themselves together” ahead of the general election.

“Don't forget in an election campaign they will have no shortage of money which they’ll throw massively in that short six-week period. There's no culture war or fight they won’t be willing to fight in order to keep hold of power. And I think the polls will narrow and tighten.”

I appreciate he probably has to say this. You can’t have a party high heidyin telling the troops not to worry, but last Wednesday, Professor Sir John Curtice said Labour now had a 99% chance of winning the election.

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Over the weekend we had two polls giving Sir Keir Starmer eye-watering majorities.

The MRP survey of 15,000 people for Best for Britain on Sunday was bad for the Tories, suggesting they’ll return just 98 MPs at the next election.

The Daily Mail’s poll on Monday was even worse.

They interviewed 18,000 people and had the Tories winning just 80 seats across the whole of the UK, with Labour on 470.

Can the Tories turn this round? Can they pull themselves together?

“I think that's really unlikely,” Dundee University’s Professor Jennifer Lees-Marshment tells me.

“They've been in power for a long time and the other thing is that the overall brand of the party is damaged due to those changes in leaders and the problems in the leadership generally.

“And on one hand, they need to offer a fresh new product, a fresh new brand. And the problem is that Rishi is not really new because he was part of the Johnson-era government.”

Turning things round would need the Tories to be able to convey in the next few months that “they're actually suddenly connected, they're suddenly in touch, they suddenly understand, they have solutions and they're going to do something better about it than they have in the last 14 years.”

The party's problems are, she adds, “extensive”.

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New 'megapoll' predicts SNP to win 41 seats while Tories face UK wipe out

One of the other interesting things about this weekend’s megapolls is that both have shown the SNP’s vote holding up.

The first suggested Humza Yousaf’s party would win 41 seats, which would be a great night for the beleaguered First Minister.  

The second forecast 32 seats, which would still be a good night, especially considering most previous, non-MRP polls have the party picking up around 20 MPs.

But it means those massive Labour majorities are being achieved without a revival in Scotland, that despite what Sarwar and Jackie Baillie say, the road to a Labour government does not necessarily run through Scotland.

Scots can vote SNP or Lib Dem or even Tory and chances are they’ll get a Labour government.

How does Scottish Labour convince those voters wedded to another party to come to them?

Sarwar says it’s about who is best placed when it comes to “maximising Scotland's input”.

“Do they want to elect an MP that wants to sit opposite a Labour Government shouting at it? Or do they want to elect Scottish Labour MPs that are going to be in government sitting around the table helping to make decisions and maximizing the revenue for Scotland?”

Despite what Anas Sarwar and Jackie Baillie say, the 'road to a Labour government does not necessarily run through Scotland' (Image: Newsquest)
This looks set to be the key debate during Scotland’s election campaign. Who will be better heard, and have more influence in Westminster? The SNP on the opposition benches or Labour on the government benches?

We could find ourselves having that debate sooner rather than later. One of the suggestions floating about at the moment is that we could have an election in June.

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Either because Rishi Sunak wants to see off any attempted vote of no confidence after a probable drubbing in the English local elections on 2 May or because he now, like John Curtice, but not Anas Sarwar, thinks that defeat is inevitable.

Instead of prolonging the pain, he goes now, minimises the damage and stops his MPs from destroying the party.

I would probably hedge my bets a bit more than John Curtice, but frankly, there’s more chance of Scotland winning the Euros than the Tories managing to “pull themselves together”.