Housebuilders have been navigating an economic storm of late with the toll of this laid bare in this morning's full-year results from Taylor Wimpey.

In a cyclical industry near its low point in the current cycle, the second-biggest player in the UK sector is set to build fewer houses this year after underlying pre-tax profits for 2023 almost halved to £473.8 million. Revenues slumped by more than a fifth to £3.5 billion.

Higher interest rates, lower consumer confidence, and general cost-of-living pressures have all been working against the industry, and the announcement earlier this week that the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) is launching a probe into issues including poor build quality and potential market collusion is a further unwelcome development.

READ MORE: CMA calls for 'significant intervention' in UK housebuilding

One of eight major builders coming under the CMA spotlight, Taylor Wimpey said it will "cooperate fully" with the investigation. The group also welcomed the CMA's conclusion that the vast bulk of the blame for the under-delivery of new houses in the UK lies at the feet of an unnecessarily onerous planning system, rather than housebuilders themselves.

Against the backdrop of shortages of homes of all tenures, news that Taylor Wimpey is set to build between 9,500 and 10,000 homes in 2024 – down from 10,438 last year – is a blow. Many of the group's customers are the first-time buyers that have found it increasingly difficult in recent years to get a foot on the housing ladder.

It has been alleged by some that builders slow the pace of output during periods of downturn to ensure they needn't cut the price of new homes that are completed, but it can also be argued that this is simply the dynamics of supply and demand. It will be for the CMA to judge whether any have crossed the line into unfair market manipulation.

READ MORE: Vindication and reprobation as housebuilders come under competitive spotlight

All of that said, there are some emerging signs of optimism for the industry and Taylor Wimpey in particular.

Group sales so far this year are higher than in the same period in 2023, and building cost inflation has largely passed. With expectations that interest rates will soon be headed lower, higher sales activity across the whole of the market is anticipated.

The sector looks set for a recovery of some sort in the coming year, but a return to full health is far from certain. Meanwhile, regulators and politicians will continue to grapple with the wider housing crisis.