Humza Yousaf’s had some bad days in the 11 months he’s been in charge of the SNP.
But unlike anything to do with Operation Branchform or the missing auditors or the DRS this was a bad day all of his own making.
The First Minister stood by Michael Matheson. He was loyal to his minister in a way that perhaps his predecessor - indeed any of his predecessors - would not have been.
Politically, it would have been easier to have sacked his friend in November, but Yousaf chose not to take the easy option.
READ MORE: Michael Matheson to get £12k golden goodbye
"Look for me, Michael, who I've known for well over 15 years is a man of integrity and honesty,” he said back in November after he was caught lying to media. “He should have handled the situation better, Michael knows that."
It’s not just Michael who should have handled the situation better.
Here’s the other thing, we still don’t know exactly what Michael knows.
We don’t know what’s in the Scottish Parliamentary Corporate Body’s report into Matheson’s data bill.
Bizarrely, we’re told that neither he nor the First Minister knew what was in the report before he offered his resignation.
But media speculation over the last few days suggested it was damning. That, it seems, was enough.
There are clearly still questions here.
Did Matheson resign because he knew the SPCB will have to refer him to parliament's standards committee even though he hadn’t seen the report?
Does that mean there are things he didn’t tell parliament, didn’t tell the First Minister?
Why did he think he was a distraction on Thursday and not in November or any of the days in between?
It’s all very bizarre.
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Nevertheless, it’s given Mr Yousaf a much needed opportunity.
Yesterday, in the regular post-FMQs briefing his official spokesman tried to steer journalists away from using the word “reset”.
But, effectively, that’s what it is.
There are some good decisions in the reshuffle. Fiona Hyslop was wasted on the backbenches, and returning transport to Cabinet makes sense.
In a government that’s often seen as way too central belt, hiring Jim Fairlie will be a popular call, while Kaukab Stewart’s promotion is long overdue.
There’s a crucial general election this year and, as Herald columnist and polling expert Mark McGeoghegan pointed out on X/Twitter, the race is far tighter than you might think.
These are small proportions of voters, but if the SNP won back that 7% of Labour supporters willing to switch they'd win 36 seats to Labour's 14.
— Mark McGeoghegan (@markmcgeoghegan) February 2, 2024
And if Labour won over that 7% of SNP voters willing to switch, they'd take 28 seats to the SNP's 18.
All to play for. https://t.co/fpmbewuZmT pic.twitter.com/V2MXDPk6BF
If just 7% of current SNP Westminster supporters who are thinking about switching to Labour come back to Yousaf, his party would win 36 seats to Labour's 14.
If Labour can convince them to stay, they'd take 28 seats to the SNP's 18.
For the sake of his own future Yousaf needs to get this reset right, if he doesn’t his party may end up resetting him out of Bute House before the year’s end.
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