The green credentials of the vessels at the centre of Scotland's ferry fiasco have been thrown into disarray as experts predict they will be expected to produce far more dangerous emissions than if they ran on pure fossil diesel.
Details of the lack of green credentials of the ferries have emerged as concerns have been raised that ministers have admitted they are unable to check on the levels of greenhouse gases that will be pumped into the atmosphere by the much delayed and over-budget vessels.
The 'shocking' revelations have come after the still-to-be completed new dual-fuel ferries Glen Sannox and Glen Rosa which were meant to be identical, were lauded by then First Minister Nicola Sturgeon as the 'sustainable' ferries that would "contribute to Scotland's world-leading climate change goals".
They were hailed as a step towards a greener future for Scotland's state owned CalMac ferry fleet as they were to be the first UK-built ships capable of running off liquefied natural gas, or LNG, as well as conventional diesel.
The Scottish Government ferry owners Caledonian Maritime Assets Ltd said the ability to operate on LNG meant the ferries were "significantly cleaner and will help to reduce emissions to meet ambitious Scottish Government targets".
READ MORE: Scottish Ferries: Key port won't be able to take ferry fiasco ships
CMAL has previously said that the two vessels would reduce the carbon footprint of the ferry fleet by 25 per cent.
The European Federation for Transport and Environment, commonly referred to as Transport & Environment, a European umbrella for non-governmental organisations working in the field of transport and the environment, promoting sustainable transport in Europe believe the ferry engines chosen are the worst for methane greenhouse gas leakage.
They say using LNG as a marine fuel goes against the Global Methane Pledge launched at the United Nations Climate Change Conference, commonly known as COP26, in Glasgow in November 2021 that aims to reduce methane emissions by 30% by 2030 and is against advice from institutions such as the World Bank.
Transport Scotland said there were many vessels in the world which are running with dual fuel engines and that it was "well established and proven technology".
Jon Hood, UK sustainable shipping manager for Transport & Environment said that if the goal was decarbonising ferry operations, domestic ferries should be electrified.
He said that while LNG is being pushed as a greener fuel of choice, they say that "what they do not say is that using LNG brings new and – often – worse climate problems, making it a terrible choice for the future".
He said LNG is mostly methane, a greenhouse gas around 80 times more powerful than CO2 in the short-term and 30 times worse in the long term. It has been described as a "greenwashing pill".
"Methane leaks into the atmosphere throughout the LNG production and supply chain, as well as 'slipping' unburned through ship engines and escaping via the exhaust," said Mr Hood.
Analysis by the International Council on Clean Transportation, the most popular LNG dual fuel medium speed four-stroke marine engines - similar to the Scottish ferries - are also the leakiest. It said the LNG technology emitted 70% to 82% more life-cycle greenhouse gases than marine gas oil.
It further revealed that in 2021, some 82% of methane emissions from international shipping could be traced back to liquefied gas tankers, primarily LNG carriers.
The data is derived from an analysis conducted using the ICCT’s Systematic Assessment of Vessel Emissions (SAVE) model.
Its analysis indicates that a staggering 98% of methane emissions in 2021 originated from low-pressure engines, known for their higher methane slip compared to high-pressure alternatives.
Within this category, low-pressure, dual-fuel, four-stroke engines, similar to the Scots ferries, claimed the majority (86%) of emissions. These engines, commonly favoured by LNG carriers, were noted for their estimated higher methane slip.
Further collaborative analysis headed by ICCT which they say is the most comprehensive dataset of real-world methane emissions from LNG-fueled ships to date, including “methane slip” from engines and fugitive methane emissions from LNG cargo unloading operations showed that methane slippage averaged 6.4%, whereas EU regulations currently assume 3.1% and the United Nations International Maritime Organization (IMO) assumes 3.5%.
Mr Hood added: "These factors vary, but the ICCT have shown that the climate impact of using LNG as a shipping fuel can be around 80% greater than if vessels simply stuck with fossil diesel. To make matters worse, the type of engine most commonly installed on ferries has also shown to be the leakiest, in terms of methane slippage."
The wellbeing economy secretary Neil Gray when quizzed about what the anticipated methane slip would be of the ferries, admitted that it was not known.
He said: "CalMac are continuing to develop the LNG workstream for Glen Sannox and Glen Rosa, including through discussions with Wartsila the engine manufacturer. The methane slip in service would be influenced by the route the ship is to operate on and the amount of venting produced by the number of times changing over fuel source or when slowing down suddenly for navigational purposes.
"For these reasons the rate of methane slip will not be fully known until the ships are deployed and fully operational."
The situation has been strongly criticised by Scottish Conservatives' shadow transport minister Graham Simpson who has been doing the quizzing, and said: “The SNP’s so-called green ferries look highly likely to be anything but.
"It is astonishing that no work has been done by the Scottish Government to work out how much methane - a greenhouse gas - will be pumped into the atmosphere as a result of using LNG."
Eyes have also been raised about the logistics of getting LNG to Scotland – while four new vessels being built in Turkey will not be powered by the 'green' fuel at all.
According to a 2022 Scottish Government briefing, LNG will have to be shipped from the Isle of Grain in Kent – a near 500 mile journey by road.
CalMac has been told that it is not yet feasible to use LNG-powered trucks due to the size of the fuel tanks required and a lack of refuelling infrastructure.
Mr Simpson added: "The answer I got from Neil Gray is as vague as it gets. It is bad enough that the LNG will be shipped from abroad then brought up by tanker from the south of England, which is hardly environmentally friendly, but once in use it can release a harmful by-product.
"Telling us that we will just have to wait and see how things turn out is not acceptable. We need to know what mitigations are being put in place.
"We need more than, we will just have to wait and see, we need to know what mitigations are being put in place."
The adoption of LNG as a fuel by ships stems from the fact that LNG contains less carbon and little sulphur compared to traditional marine fuels. LNG can thus lower CO2 and sulphur oxides (SOx) emissions that ships would normally emit. LNG marine engines are also set up in a way that emits less nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions.
When LNG is burned as a fuel, it releases energy and produces carbon dioxide (CO2) and water vapour, along with smaller amounts of other pollutants.
While CO2 is a significant greenhouse gas, burning methane releases less CO2 compared to other fossil fuels, making in theory LNG a relatively cleaner-burning fuel.
Transport & Environment say that while the industry was quick to tout the benefits of LNG, the relatively damning methane slippage problem was swept under the carpet, as well as leakages from on-shore infrastructure associated with the fuel's production, transportation and storage.
If methane is released in air – even in very small amounts – its impact on climate change is disastrous.
Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, with a higher warming potential than CO2 over a shorter timeframe. Any methane slip can contribute to greenhouse emissions and impact the overall environmental footprint of LNG.
Transport & Environment say the four stroke engines that are currently the choice for Glen Sannox and Glen Rosa has the highest methane slippage.
A CalMac customer information about LNG says it will "undoubtedly improve emissions in the areas in which they are operating".
It says that the adoption of LNG for ferries and other local users is "expected to grow in the future so demand will increase, and it is hoped this will create a critical mass that will lead to investment in storage facilities in Scotland to improve overall supply and encourage other users to adopt the fuel".
It goes on: "In the meantime, LNG will be transported by road, and while not ideal, when weighed up by the future environmental benefits, is considered necessary to promote the use of LNG in Scotland."
But four new vessels being built to support CalMac's ageing ferry network being built in Turkey will be diesel/electric hybrid propulsion vessels – not LNG.
It means the LNG infrastructure plans will presently be for just two vessels – and there have been persistent doubts over their future as they remain incomplete after six years of delay at the nationalised Ferguson Marine shipyard in Inverclyde.
Video: Nicola Sturgeon officiated at the official launch of Glen Sannox six years ago.
While there has been criticism over what has been described by some as an LNG planning 'farce', CalMac has begun moves to use Troon rather than Ardrossan for services to and from Arran from the summer of 2023. Because of the storage tank issues, the LNG will be pumped from trucks to the ship there.
A ferry user group official said that the green credentials of the ferries had been "well and truly shattered" by the evidence and added: "It is the ultimate kick in the balls for those of use who are having to wait for these vital ferries to come to fruition adding pure farce to what has been a true fiasco."
Naval architect Euan Haig – who throughout his career was responsible for the successful delivery of multiple Ministry of Defence contracts worth many hundreds of millions of pounds – said he believed the decision to use LNG was "nothing more than gesture politics, but it was a very expensive gesture".
The delivery of MV Glen Sannox and MV Glen Rosa, languishing in state-owned Ferguson Marine's Port Glasgow yard, which were due online in the first half of 2018, is over six years late with costs expected to quadruple on the original £97m contract.
Glen Rosa was meant to be delivered to CalMac in August 2018, but that is currently scheduled for May 2025. The vessel's sister ship, Glen Sannox, was launched by Nicola Sturgeon nearly seven years ago and is due for delivery in the Spring.
But the dates of arrival have been constantly in a state of flux as their construction has been plagued by design challenges, cost overruns and delays.
A Transport Scotland spokesman said: “Scottish minsters have been clear that LNG is a transition fuel and brings benefits in relation to a reduction in other emissions.
“Through CMAL, we will continue the journey towards lower carbon alternatives and Net Zero, noting that the current technology available does not lend itself to fully electric vessels that meet the requirements of the major vessel fleet.
“The Small Vessel Replacement Programme will deliver electric ferries as part of our commitment to reduce emissions from ferry services.”
Transport Scotland insisted that LNG offered around 20% less carbon emissions than marine gas oil. But it accepted that LNG is not a long-term alternative to marine gas oil for ferries.
It also insisted LNG reduces greenhouse gases and virtually eliminates NOx/SOx/particulate matter.
It said it provides an "opportunity for emission reductions from new major vessels in the medium term – given the absence of other commercially available options at present".
"LNG has significant local air quality benefits, with the addition of shore-power connections also providing for overnight powering of vessels, with significant local noise and air quality improvements for residents and crew," a source added.
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