General Election: Should SNP be talking up Labour's chances?

The SNP has decided who will win the next general election and, for once, a political party is not boasting about its own chances.

Humza Yousaf’s party is telling voters that Labour will win the general election, which could still be some 10 or 11 months away, and form the next UK government.

The First Minister has been unashamedly talking up Labour’s chances at the ballot box since Holyrood returned from its festive snooze.

The SNP cannot win a general election UK-wide, so the assessment to voters is not strictly a slap in its own face.

But bigging up an opponent and very much placing them as a government in waiting, is surely a very risky move.

Let’s be honest – barring a catastrophe – Labour will form the next UK Government later this year.

Keir Starmer’s party is soaring in the polls. It appears clear that voters have had it up to here with the Conservatives and are looking for a change.

We are some way out from the election, probably, so a lot can happen between now and polling day. A huge backing of support from the public can vanish at the drop of a hat – just ask the SNP still reeling from Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation and all that followed.

But it is a pretty safe bet to say that Labour is a shoo-in to form the next UK Government.

You can see where the SNP pitch to voters is coming from, but it is pretty wild.

The idea is that Labour are so far ahead in the polls that the fight for Scottish seats will become insignificant to them.

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The First Minister knows that people do not see Labour and Tories as the same thing – his former Westminster leader Ian Blackford has called for the ‘red Tories’ jibe to be banished.

Unfortunately for the SNP, independence is, at least for the time being, not the big question in Scottish politics.

The route to independence has reached a dead end with no obvious solution and there are more pressing matters such as the cost-of-living crisis that voters care about.

Under Anas Sarwar, Scottish Labour has been very cautious on the constitution, perhaps too much. The party has done away, mostly, with the muscular unionism that was doing it no favours with the public.

To many sensible left-wing voters who are curious about independence, Labour are now seen as an alternative to the Conservatives, not part of the same big unionist machine anymore.

Labour’s main appeal to Scottish voters at the general election will be removing the Conservatives from Downing Street – something the SNP cannot do and only Sir Keir’s party can.

There will be a wee bit of panic within the SNP that those who support independence and would maybe back Mr Yousaf’s party at the ballot box will happily vote Labour if it means removing Rishi Sunak from office.

The strategy is trying to play into a narrative that only the SNP has Scotland’s interests at heart and that Labour will have too many important things to deal with in running the UK to concern itself with Scotland.

Again this is a risky message to send out, particularly when the Scottish Government is suffering from voter fatigue after 17 years in office.

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The last time Labour swept to power at Westminster, the 1997 landslide victory saw Tony Blair pick up 56 Scottish seats and begin the process of Scottish devolution.

Voters had many reasons to vote either Yes or No in the 2014 referendum, but many supported and still backed independence because of the positive outlook put forward by the Yes campaign.

This positive message will need to be put forward by the SNP if it is to hang onto as many seats as possible at Westminster, while Labour will also need to draw up a positive vision for what it will do in government and not continue to ride the coattails of a desperately unpopular Conservative government.