Sutherland facing a rapid decline in its population

He mentions a secondary school in Kinlochbervie which has capacity for 182 pupils but currently has 33 children and numbers are forecast to drop to 21 by 2032.

"They built secondary schools and there just aren't the kids now," he says. It's a desperately tough decision to close a school because no young family is going to come to the area."

In 1851 25,793 people lived in the historic county in northern Scotland which arguably suffered the most excessive of 19th century clearances. 

Data shows that most parts of the Highlands classed as 'very remote rural areas'  (more than a 60-minute drive time from a settlement with a population of 10,000) are losing young people and gaining over-65s.

The south of Sutherland has experienced the biggest rise in the number of pensioners ( 416) between 2011 and 2021 but Skye South had the largest percentage increase (63%)

In the north east of Caithness, the number of pre-school children has dropped by 52%.

Prof Bell's ancestors on his mother's side were moved from Sutherland and he returned to his birthplace of Dornoch - "a little pocket of affluence"-  during the pandemic to retire.

He is aware he is part of the problem that is stymying population growth in some parts of the Highlands and Islands.

"In some ways is good because we have money to spend," he says.

"But it also closes the housing market. The number of houses has been increasing but it's mainly for people who want to retire here.

"I think there will be a social care crisis within the next ten years. It's the baby boomers and I'm one of them."

Educated at Dornoch Academy, he moved to study at the University of Aberdeen and London School of Economics and his many roles have included acting as a specialist adviser in the financing of Scottish devolution. 

"I live, in a sense, at the sharp end of this," says the academic, who is a member of the Centre for Population Change and a professor of economics at Stirling University.

"The issue here is ageing and not a shrinking population. In the north coast and west coast, it is everything that is going wrong.

"They are ageing, the population is falling and so they are struggling to continue to provide services. Things like childcare are a huge issue.

"Caithness is forecast to lose a lot of the population. It must be a slightly different case because there are big populations in Wick and Thurso."

He mentions that Highland Council looks set to close its only office in Sutherland.

A survey by Highlands and Islands Enterprise (HIE) asking young people about their ambitions after school found that the further north pupils were the higher proportion that wanted to leave.

"It's lack of opportunity," says Prof Bell, who said that some parts of the Highlands are more remote than the Islands "which are more generously funded"

"It's ironic that renewables was held up as a big opportunity but when you break it down, once these windfarms are constructed they don't need that much servicing.

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"They don't need people on hand all the time so they tend to be serviced from places that have big stores of big parts, so that would be Inverness, most likely.

"There is going to be a spaceport built in the north of Sutherland - I think it's between 30 and 40 jobs. Most of the jobs are going to be in Forres, don't ask me why.

An artist's impression of the planned spaceport (Image: Orbex)

"Once your population gets down to a low, when it's sparse it's very difficult to attract businesses to come and invest in the area.

"Orkney is doing reasonably well because they are developing new technologies. We are just covered in windfarms."

He is a big supporter of the Coul Links golf development in Sutherland, which was approved by Highland Council but may be called in to Scottish Ministers because Nature Scot has objected on environmental grounds. Depopulation is one of the principal arguments in its favour, he says.

"We think there is a couple of hundred jobs in it," he says.

"The developer, Mike Keiser, is legendary in terms of the quality of the golf courses he builds, he has lots in the top 20.

"Royal Dornoch is already in that top 20 so that would be two within two miles of each other. The arguments against it are largely environmental and it's our view that the site is already degraded."

As we speak over Zoom he is sitting in Dornoch Golf Club, a £6 million a year business that employs around 70 full-time staff now and a further 70 or 80 in the season.

Royal Dornoch Golf Club (Image: Getty)

He is involved with the club and travelled to America three times last year where the club has 700 members.

"These members are tremendously well disposed towards us and they spend a lot of money. One of the tour operators told us that on average, the American golfer is spending £1000 a day."

Hotel firm Marine and Lawn acquired a rundown hotel in the area and upgraded it to a luxury standard with 80 rooms.

"That's sort of development that employs a lot of people," says Prof Bell. "The question is whether it's about skilled jobs but it is bringing in a lot of jobs for young local people."

He said Brexit and other changes in migration policy has led to more people coming from India and Nigeria and less from Eastern Europe. 

"This is probably not working in Scotland's favour in the first instance but also in terms of the Highlands," he says. "People from let's say warmer climes may be put off by the climate."

Sutherland is the heartland of the North Coast 500 route but he says those behind it could do more to persuade roadtrippers to part with their cash.

"There are fairly long tracts on the north coast especially and to some extent on the west coast where you are travelling through beautiful scenery but there is not a coffee shop within 20 miles at least and the accommodation is limited," he says.

"So you end up with people in campervans who don't spend much money and drive the locals crazy.

"The trouble is, it's one of these catch-22 situations. You don't have enough young people to generate the income that would support young people staying in the area."