Higher levels of sickness and disease among the Scottish population may explain why Scotland had an unusually high level of Covid hospital admissions compared to the UK average in the Spring of 2022, according to a leading statistician.

Roger Halliday, the chief statistician for the Scottish Government from 2011 until April 2022, told the UK Covid inquiry that he was "struggling to explain" a graph which showed far higher rates of Covid-19 patients in hospital per 100,000 population in Scotland compared to the UK as a whole in the period of March and April 2022.

A graph presented to the inquiry in Edinburgh and based on data from the UK Health Security Agency (HSA) shows that, by April 2022, the number of patients in hospital with Covid in Scotland was around 40% higher than the UK average.

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Jamie Dawson KC, lead counsel for the inquiry in Scotland, said: "Would that tend to suggest that towards the end of the period we're interested in, there was a statistically significantly higher number of people in Scottish hospitals with Covid that in the UK?"

Mr Halliday cautioned that it was difficult to assess whether the figures were "significant" in a statistical definition - meaning they were not due to chance - but said: "Certainly the Scotland number is of an order higher than the rest of the UK.

"I'm not quite sure as to the reason, given that at the time - when we refer back to the Covid infections survey - whilst the Scottish peak was a little bit higher, it certainly wasn't higher to the magnitude that the hospitals data suggests...I'm struggling to explain what that is."

The Herald: The graph shows much higher rates of Covid patients in hospital in Scotland in Spring of 2022The graph shows much higher rates of Covid patients in hospital in Scotland in Spring of 2022 (Image: UKHSA/UK Covid Inquiry)

The Herald: Scotland had slightly higher rates of Covid infections compared to the rest of the UK in Spring 2022, but not enough to explain the 'magnitude' of difference for hospital Covid casesScotland had slightly higher rates of Covid infections compared to the rest of the UK in Spring 2022, but not enough to explain the 'magnitude' of difference for hospital Covid cases (Image: ONS/UK Covid Inquiry)

Mr Halliday added that it was puzzling given that patterns for the vaccine rollout and uptake were also similar in Scotland to the UK.

Spring 2022 marked the period when Covid-related mitigations were gradually lifted across the country following the Omicron wave as part of an exit strategy of "living with" the virus.

The majority of the population had received at least three Covid vaccine doses, including a booster.

While Scotland was slower than other parts of the UK to roll back on mitigations such as face coverings, testing, and isolation policies, it was noted at the time that Covid case rates in Scotland - based on household surveillance by the Office for National Statistics - were slightly higher compared to the UK in Spring 2022.

At that point, all hospital patients were still routinely tested for Covid on admission and during their stay regardless of symptoms.

Most patients in hospital with Covid were no longer in hospital because of the disease, meaning that hospital figures would usually reflect wider community prevalence.

For that reason, Mr Halliday said it was difficult to explain why there was such a discrepancy between Scotland and the UK in terms of rates of Covid in hospital in Spring 2022 when the difference in infection rates between the two countries at that same point in time was much smaller.

He added: "One factor may be to do with the underlying health conditions of people in Scotland, relative to other parts of the UK."