Experts have warned that the deepening homelessness crisis in Scotland could see the numbers of unhoused people rising by a third in the next two years.

Research commissioned by the charity Crisis and undertaken by Heriot-Watt University details how core homelessness will rise without significant government action.

The report comes against a backdrop of increasing pressure on local authorities – three of which declared housing emergencies last year – for homes and political pressure on the Scottish Government to act.

In what Scottish Labour described as a "damning report", core homelessness is detailed to have stood at 18,400 households in 2022 but is projected to increase by 6100 by 2026.

The core homelessness figure has gone up by 11% since 2020.

The Homelessness Monitor report recommends a raft of measures to prevent this increase, including raising working age benefits and action to prevent destitution, and says immediate action could reverse trends to produce a 56% drop in core homelessness by 2026 instead.

Several suggestions made in the report are reserved matters for the UK government, however, such as increasing Housing Benefit and some working age benefits as well as ensuring there is no Local Housing Allowance freeze.

Writing exclusively in The Herald, Matt Downie, chief executive of Crisis, said these figures represent people who "are the human face of failed policy".

Read Matt Downie's full comment on the report here

He writes: "We need to act now, because this report shows what will happen if we do nothing: more people forced into sofa surfing, into sleeping in cars or garages or on the street, or to live in forms of emergency accommodation that do not meet their needs.

"But it also shows that it doesn’t need to be that way.

"By investing in homelessness services and by pushing on with plans to prevent homelessness, backed by adequate resource, the Scottish Government can stop that future from becoming a reality."

Scotland's Housing Minister Paul McLennan said the report was welcome and added that the Scottish Government is committed to reducing levels of homelessness. 

The study examined past trends in homelessness and projected trends based on housing market data and economic forecasts from the Treasury, OBR and other sources.

Opposition politicians described the report as outlining an "impending catastrophe".

Commenting on Crisis Scotland’s annual Scotland Homelessness Monitor report, Scottish Labour Housing spokesperson Mark Griffin said “This damning report lays bare the impending catastrophe Scotland is facing.

“Homelessness is already at record levels, and without action it will soar by a third – but the SNP and the Greens insist there is no housing emergency.

“We need urgent action across the board to deal with this growing problem and ensure that everyone has a safe, secure home – including building affordable housing, properly funding Councils and tackling the cost of living crisis.”

The issue of rough sleeping and a lack of affordable, appropriate housing has seen a number of local authorities - including Edinburgh City Council and Glasgow City Council - declare housing emergencies.

Mr Downie added: "The risk of a significant rise in homelessness over the coming years should worry us all.

READ MORE: As Glasgow declares a housing emergency, what of asylum seekers?

"We can't just sit back and watch as more people are forced onto the streets, to sleep in cars or garages, or spent months or years trapped in emergency accommodation that just isn't fit for their basic needs.

"It doesn't need to be that way. Scotland has proven good policy can make a difference in the past, and it can do it again.

"As this report shows, by investing in homelessness services and by pushing on with plans to prevent homelessness, backed by adequate resource, the Scottish Government can stop that future from becoming a reality.

"We know what causes homelessness and we know how to end it. By working together, we can build a Scotland where everyone has a safe, secure place to call home."

Dr Beth Watts-Cobbe of Heriot-Watt University said the report detailed services that are under "huge strain".

She added: "With rising numbers of people presenting as homeless over the past two years, reports of growing footfall from local authorities and intense challenges accessing accommodation to resolve people's homelessness.

"It is acutely concerning that, after a decade of stability prior to the pandemic and despite a strong focus on rapid rehousing approaches, temporary accommodation placements have increased sharply, including a greater reliance on accommodation."

Mr McLennan added: "We have already committed to many of these measures in our homelessness strategy.

“Scotland has the strongest rights across the UK nations for people experiencing homelessness.

"Tackling homelessness is a key priority for the Scottish Government and anyone threatened with or experiencing homelessness is entitled to advice and accommodation if they need it.

“I welcome Crisis’s backing for the measures to help prevent homelessness which are included in the Housing Bill, which we committed to introducing as part of our Programme for Government.

“However as the report notes, other changes which would make a significant difference are not within the powers of the Scottish Government.

"We continue to call on UK ministers to introduce an Essentials Guarantee to be applied to Universal Credit and other reserved benefits, so social security benefits adequately cover the cost of essentials and better protect the most vulnerable people."